Morning Pack — Friday 9 October 2026
Overnight: US futures rebound after Thursday’s tech-led decline. Oil retreats from the previous session’s Iran-driven spike as Trump rules out attacks before the US midterms, although Gulf production disruptions keep supply risk elevated. Treasuries are firmer following Thursday’s 30-year auction.
| Index | Last | Net | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nikkei 225 | 69,394.02 | -641.69 | -0.92% |
| Shanghai | 3,831.844 | -10.351 | -0.27% |
| Shenzhen | 12,727.709 | -159.911 | -1.24% |
| Hang Seng | 23,963.31 | -167.19 | -0.69% |
| ASX 200 | 8,664.40 | -63.30 | -0.73% |
| KOSPI | 6,669.51 | -134.39 | -1.98% |
| Straits Times | 5,433.08 | -175.36 | -3.13% |
| NZX 50 | 13,691.85 | +7.81 | +0.06% |
Prices supplied from approximately 05:42 BST on Thursday 8 October; historical snapshot, not Friday live quotes.
Asia-Pacific Equities — Thursday Snapshot
US Equity Futures
| Contract | Last | Net | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dow | 51,600.0 | +107.00 | +0.21% |
| S&P 500 | 7,839.0 | +22.75 | +0.29% |
| Nasdaq | 31,120.5 | +151.00 | +0.49% |
| Russell 2K | 2,820.1 | +10.50 | +0.37% |
US Cash — Thursday Close
| Index | Close | Net | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dow | 51,231.64 | +51.77 | +0.10% |
| Nasdaq | 27,193.34 | -345.351 | -1.25% |
| S&P 500 | 7,765.36 | -36.41 | -0.47% |
| Russell 2K | 2,794.128 | +0.924 | +0.03% |
| VIX | 15.41 | +0.33 | +2.19% |
US Treasuries
| Tenor | Yield | Δ bp |
|---|---|---|
| 6M | 4.322% | +1.4 |
| 1Y | 4.443% | +1.5 |
| 2Y | 4.749% | -0.7 |
| 3Y | 4.876% | -1.3 |
| 5Y | 4.976% | -1.5 |
| 7Y | 5.097% | -1.4 |
| 10Y | 5.219% | -1.4 |
| 20Y | 5.647% | -0.5 |
| 30Y | 5.602% | -0.5 |
FX
| Pair | Last | Net | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| EUR/USD | 1.1228 | +0.0019 | +0.17% |
| GBP/USD | 1.3240 | +0.0016 | +0.12% |
| EUR/GBP | 0.8476 | +0.0005 | +0.06% |
| USD/JPY | 158.08 | +0.22 | +0.14% |
| AUD/USD | 0.6978 | +0.0023 | +0.33% |
| NZD/USD | 0.5619 | +0.0009 | +0.16% |
| USD/CHF | 0.8301 | -0.0013 | -0.16% |
| USD/CAD | 1.4211 | -0.0014 | -0.10% |
| USD/CNY | 6.6967 | -0.0054 | -0.08% |
Commodities
| Contract | Last | Net | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| WTI Nov | 90.28 | -1.21 | -1.32% |
| Brent Dec | 102.79 | -1.49 | -1.43% |
| Nat Gas Nov | 3.135 | -0.033 | -1.04% |
| RBOB Nov | 3.2823 | -0.0337 | -1.02% |
| Heating Oil Nov | 4.7954 | -0.0875 | -1.79% |
| Uranium Oct | 89.65 | UNCH | UNCH |
Headlines
• Trump rules out Iran strikes before November midterms, despite military preparations
• Oil eases after Iran comments; Hurricane Isaias threatens Gulf supply
• US Treasuries rally after solid 30-year bond auction
• 30-year Treasury auction yields 5.618%, highest auction stop since 2000
Friday Economic Calendar — GMT
| GMT | Event | Forecast | Previous |
|---|---|---|---|
| 13:30 | ECB Schnabel speaks | — | — |
| 14:00 | Michigan 1Y inflation exp. (Oct P) | — | 4.6% |
| 14:00 | Michigan 5Y inflation exp. (Oct P) | — | 3.4% |
| 14:00 | Michigan consumer expectations (Oct P) | 45.9 | — |
| 14:00 | Michigan consumer sentiment (Oct P) | 47.5 | — |
| 16:00 | WASDE report | — | — |
| 17:00 | Baker Hughes oil rig count | — | — |
| 17:00 | Baker Hughes total rig count | — | — |
| 19:30 | CFTC GBP net positions | — | — |
| 19:30 | CFTC crude net positions | — | — |
| 19:30 | CFTC gold net positions | — | — |
| 19:30 | CFTC Nasdaq 100 net positions | — | — |
| 19:30 | CFTC S&P 500 net positions | — | — |
| 19:30 | CFTC EUR net positions | — | — |
Risk Commentary
Geopolitics / energy: The Iran de-escalation message is supporting futures and weighing on crude, but the Strait of Hormuz and Hurricane Isaias keep a substantial oil-supply risk premium in place. A renewed escalation would quickly reprice energy, inflation expectations and rates.
Rates: Thursday’s $22bn 30-year reopening cleared at 5.618%, versus 5.308% at the prior auction. Bid-to-cover was 2.54, above the recent six-auction average of 2.41, despite being below September’s 2.61. Demand was therefore firmer than the month-on-month comparison alone suggests. The overnight 10-year yield is 5.219%.
Equities: The Nasdaq’s -1.25% cash decline contrasts with a +0.49% futures rebound; watch whether that bounce survives the US session and the Michigan inflation expectations release.
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