Morning Market Pack
Friday 28 August 2026 · Snapshot around 04:50–05:00 GMT · Calendar times in GMT
Asia-Pacific
| Market | Level | Net | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nikkei 225 | 66,642.05 | +510.07 | +0.77% |
| Shanghai | 3,959.639 | +3.068 | +0.08% |
| Shenzhen | 14,029.834 | -19.042 | -0.14% |
| Hang Seng | 25,684.89 | +119.15 | +0.47% |
| ASX 200 | 9,082.40 | +44.20 | +0.49% |
| KOSPI | 6,841.61 | -70.76 | -1.02% |
| STI | 5,698.76 | +14.64 | +0.26% |
| NZX 50 | 13,798.62 | -81.43 | -0.59% |
Asia: The regional tape is mixed rather than uniformly risk-on. Japan is outperforming, helped by the post-Nvidia technology impulse, while Korea is the clear laggard. Tokyo CPI was broadly in line: headline 1.9% y/y, ex-fresh food 1.8%, and ex-fresh food & energy 2.0%. The larger global event risk remains Warsh at Jackson Hole.
United States — Previous Close
| Market | Close | Net | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dow Jones | 53,569.44 | +105.56 | +0.20% |
| S&P 500 | 7,730.99 | +55.29 | +0.72% |
| Nasdaq Composite | 26,541.35 | +411.15 | +1.57% |
US: Technology drove Thursday's advance after Nvidia's results and outlook revived confidence in AI spending. Nvidia finished +8.74%; the broader S&P rose 0.72% and Nasdaq 1.57%. The overnight tone is more restrained as investors reduce risk ahead of the Fed chair's speech.
US Futures
| Contract / proxy | Level | Net | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | 7,727.40 | -3.40 | -0.04% |
| Nasdaq 100 | — | — | ≈ -0.10% |
S&P level/net from the live market snapshot; Nasdaq futures were reported around 0.1% lower. No reliable live contract level was available at the snapshot, so it has not been invented.
US Treasuries
| Maturity | Yield | Move |
|---|---|---|
| 2-Year | 4.228% | -0.8 bp* |
| 10-Year | 4.672% | -0.4 bp* |
| 30-Year | 5.197% | ≈ 0.0 bp |
*Approx. change from Thursday's cited US close (2Y 4.236%, 10Y 4.676%). Asian-session yields were broadly steady/slightly lower.
FX
| Pair | Level | Move |
|---|---|---|
| DXY | 99.12 | Flat |
| EUR/USD | 1.1652 | USD firmer |
| GBP/USD | 1.3597 | USD firmer |
Commodities
| Market | Price | Net | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| WTI | $83.21 | -0.32 | -0.38% |
| Brent | $88.32 | -0.20 | -0.23% |
| Gold futures | $4,631.44 | -32.56 | -0.70% |
| Nat Gas | $2.922 | +0.016 | +0.55% |
Rates & FX
Treasuries are holding close to Thursday's weaker levels after yields rose into Jackson Hole. The dollar is near a one-week high but essentially flat this morning. The market's key question is whether Warsh validates the recent rise in yields or gives investors enough clarity on the Fed's reaction function to calm the long end.
Key Headlines
- Warsh goes to Jackson Hole — markets seek clarity on the Fed's inflation stance — FT
- US stocks rally as Nvidia-led technology gains lift Wall Street — AP
- Asian shares edge higher while US futures slip before Warsh — Bloomberg / Swissinfo
- Nvidia +8.7%, Salesforce +22.6%; Treasury yields grind higher into Jackson Hole — Saxo
- Oil heads for a weekly fall as Hormuz diplomacy remains in focus — Reuters / Investing.com
- UK public finances: lower immigration forecasts could reduce fiscal headroom by about £4bn — FT
- Fed officials keep inflation risk in focus ahead of Warsh's keynote — WSJ
- US Patriot missile stocks in Europe reported under severe strain amid Iran conflict — AP
Economic Calendar — GMT
| Time | CCY | Event | Forecast | Previous |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07:55 | EUR | German Unemployment Change (Aug) | 4K | 6K |
| 07:55 | EUR | German Unemployment Rate (Aug) | 6.4% | 6.4% |
| 12:00 | USD | Jackson Hole Symposium | — | — |
| 14:00 | USD | Fed Chair Warsh speaks | — | — |
| 14:00 | USD | Michigan 1-Year Inflation Expectations (Aug) | 4.3% | 4.2% |
| 14:00 | USD | Michigan 5-Year Inflation Expectations (Aug) | 3.3% | 3.3% |
| 14:00 | USD | Michigan Consumer Expectations (Aug) | 50.6 | 55.4 |
| 14:00 | USD | Michigan Consumer Sentiment (Aug) | 51.0 | 55.2 |
| 14:00 | USD | Payrolls Benchmark, n.s.a. | — | -862K |
| 15:55 | EUR | ECB's Schnabel speaks | — | — |
| 17:00 | USD | Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count | — | 452 |
| 17:00 | USD | Baker Hughes Total Rig Count | — | 588 |
| 19:30 | GBP | CFTC GBP speculative net positions | — | -54.6K |
Today's Focus
14:00 GMT — Kevin Warsh at Jackson Hole. This is the dominant event. Markets are looking for a clearer framework for how the new Fed chair weighs persistent inflation against signs of cooling activity. A hawkish interpretation would put renewed upward pressure on Treasury yields and the dollar and could challenge long-duration equities. A more balanced message — particularly one that reduces uncertainty around the Fed's reaction function — would be more supportive for risk assets.
Geopolitics / Energy
Hormuz remains the second major cross-asset risk. Reports indicate recognised transit routes have been cleared of mines and shipping traffic is increasing, but vessel traffic remains well below normal and US-Iran talks remain difficult. Iran has linked reopening to its conditions being met, while Venezuela is reportedly weighing an OPEC exit as US ties deepen. That leaves crude highly headline-sensitive despite this week's retreat.
Desk Summary
Bias: cautious into Warsh. Thursday's Nvidia-led US rally has carried into parts of Asia, particularly Japan, but Korea's decline and softer US futures show limited appetite to chase risk before the keynote. Treasury yields remain elevated, the dollar is firm near recent highs, and oil/Hormuz headlines continue to add a geopolitical volatility channel. The 14:00 GMT cluster — Warsh plus Michigan inflation expectations and sentiment — is the day's principal risk window.
Asia: Risk appetite is firmer across most of the region, led by Korea and mainland China, while Australia is slightly softer after hotter-than-expected July inflation data. The focus remains squarely on Nvidia’s results after the US close.
Rates: Treasury yields are little changed to modestly higher this morning, with the 10-year around 4.643% and the 30-year near 5.180%. The debate over Treasury intervention remains a major market theme, particularly its interaction with the Fed’s inflation mandate.
Oil: Crude is sharply lower, with WTI around $80.49 and Brent near $86.60, as diplomatic activity involving Iran and Oman feeds hopes of improved shipping through the Strait of Hormuz and reduces the immediate geopolitical risk premium.
Today: The US data slate is unusually heavy at 12:30 GMT, including PCE inflation, GDP and durable goods. Nvidia earnings then provide the main corporate event risk later in the session.