Morning Pack
Early market snapshot · 05:41–05:50 GMT
Asian markets
| Index | Last | Net | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nikkei 225 | 62,590.38 | -102.78 | -0.16% |
| Shanghai | 3,696.665 | +6.189 | +0.17% |
| Shenzhen | 11,620.764 | -53.062 | -0.46% |
| Hang Seng | 23,251.29 | +157.92 | +0.68% |
| ASX 200 | 8,809.90 | +14.70 | +0.17% |
| KOSPI | 5,524.96 | -25.34 | -0.46% |
| Straits Times | 5,397.64 | -24.52 | -0.45% |
| NZX 50 (Fri) | 13,733.93 | -12.91 | -0.09% |
| Nifty 50 | 22,618.50 | +18.50 | +0.08% |
Asia is mixed: Hong Kong leads gains, with Shanghai and Australia also firmer, while Japan, South Korea and Singapore slip. New Zealand observes Labour Day; the NZX 50 figures are Friday’s close.
Weekend and overnight headlines
Lula wins Brazil’s presidential runoff
Lula secures a fourth term with about 51.8% of the vote against Flávio Bolsonaro’s 48.2%. Bolsonaro seeks to challenge the outcome, leaving Brazilian assets facing political uncertainty when local markets reopen.
Musk says SpaceX closed $40bn chip-financing deal; reports differ
Musk says SpaceX has secured the debt for Nvidia GPUs, supported by its investment-grade rating and revenue from Starlink and launches. Bloomberg reports that people familiar with the transaction say pricing discussions were still continuing on Sunday and the deal had not closed.
AI financing remains under scrutiny as neoclouds struggle
CNBC examines Nvidia’s exposure through investments, financing support and guarantees for AI customers. Recent falls in specialist cloud shares and tighter credit conditions keep the sector’s funding needs in focus.
SoftBank’s Son plans $50bn Malaysia technology investment, PM says
Malaysia’s prime minister says locations have been selected for the proposed investment. The reported plan would extend the AI infrastructure build-out into Malaysia; it remains a plan rather than completed spending.
Oil retreats as traders weigh supply risks and weaker demand
December WTI falls 2.10% to $101.10 and December Brent slips 1.76% to $114.66. Prices remain elevated despite the early-session decline, with Middle East risks continuing to affect the outlook.
Trump signals a decision is nearing on Iran
Trump says he is weighing a deal with Tehran against renewed military action. The uncertainty leaves Gulf shipping and energy infrastructure exposed to further changes in the conflict.
China opens the Communist Party’s fifth plenum
Xi Jinping delivers a work report as the Central Committee begins its meeting in Beijing. The stated agenda centres on Party self-governance and discipline, with the gathering scheduled to run through Thursday.
Vučić concedes defeat in Serbia’s parliamentary election
A student-backed opposition movement wins the contest, according to preliminary results. The concession marks a major political shift after years of protests and sustained rule by his party.
UK announces further rough-sleeping funding ahead of Budget
The government announces an additional £432m, taking total funding behind its programme to £874m. Details are to be set out in Wednesday’s Budget, keeping fiscal policy in focus for sterling and gilts.
A busy policy week follows Monday’s quieter calendar
The Fed decision and UK Budget are due Wednesday, the ECB decision Thursday and the Bank of Japan decision Friday. US GDP and PCE, alongside European growth and inflation releases, add to the week’s catalysts.
US equity futures
| Contract | Last | Net | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dow | 52,571.0 | +177.00 | +0.34% |
| S&P 500 | 7,682.50 | +22.75 | +0.30% |
| Nasdaq 100 | 29,201.25 | +83.50 | +0.29% |
| Russell 2000 | 2,795.9 | +11.40 | +0.41% |
Implied cash open: Dow +162.84 (+0.31%); S&P +19.82 (+0.26%); Nasdaq 100 +66.72 (+0.23%); Russell +7.00 (+0.25%).
US cash close · Friday 23 October
| Index | Close | Net | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dow Jones | 52,215.16 | -652.82 | -1.23% |
| Nasdaq Comp. | 25,955.342 | -53.517 | -0.21% |
| S&P 500 | 7,623.68 | -39.75 | -0.52% |
| Russell 2000 | 2,775.899 | -8.127 | -0.29% |
| VIX | 19.45 | +0.42 | +2.21% |
| TSX Comp. | 35,788.18 | -185.27 | -0.52% |
| TSX 60 | 2,130.82 | -10.53 | -0.49% |
| Mexico IPC | 69,879.62 | -10.11 | -0.01% |
| Bovespa | 205,082.56 | +962.44 | +0.47% |
US Treasuries
| Maturity | Yield | Δ pp | Δ bp |
|---|---|---|---|
| 6-month | 4.322% | +0.010 | +1.0 |
| 1-year | 4.413% | +0.002 | +0.2 |
| 2-year | 4.669% | -0.013 | -1.3 |
| 3-year | 4.735% | -0.015 | -1.5 |
| 5-year | 4.790% | -0.017 | -1.7 |
| 7-year | 4.870% | -0.018 | -1.8 |
| 10-year | 4.970% | -0.018 | -1.8 |
| 20-year | 5.345% | -0.017 | -1.7 |
| 30-year | 5.300% | -0.015 | -1.5 |
Yield changes: pp = percentage points; bp = basis points. 2s10s: +30.1bp; 10s30s: +33.0bp.
Commodities
| Contract / asset | Last | Net | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| WTI Dec 26 | $101.10 | -2.17 | -2.10% |
| Brent Dec 26 | $114.66 | -2.06 | -1.76% |
| Nat gas Nov 26 | $2.519 | -0.121 | -4.58% |
| RBOB Nov 26 | $3.1720 | -0.0396 | -1.23% |
| Heating oil Nov 26 | $4.9283 | -0.0559 | -1.12% |
| Uranium (29 Sep) | $90.00 | UNCH | UNCH |
| Lumber Nov 26 | $518.50 | UNCH | UNCH |
| Gold | $4,013.197 | +17.82 | +0.45% |
Foreign exchange
| Pair | Last | Net | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| EUR/USD | 1.1215 | +0.0013 | +0.12% |
| GBP/USD | 1.3370 | -0.0002 | -0.02% |
| EUR/GBP | 0.8386 | +0.0011 | +0.13% |
| USD/JPY | 157.07 | +0.21 | +0.13% |
| AUD/USD | 0.7027 | -0.0006 | -0.09% |
| NZD/USD | 0.5698 | -0.0001 | -0.02% |
| EUR/JPY | 176.17 | +0.46 | +0.26% |
| USD/CHF | 0.8244 | -0.0005 | -0.06% |
| EUR/CHF | 0.9246 | +0.0005 | +0.05% |
| USD/SGD | 1.2786 | +0.0007 | +0.05% |
| USD/HKD | 7.8445 | +0.0029 | +0.04% |
| USD/KRW | 1,321.95 | -1.65 | -0.12% |
| USD/CNY | 6.6688 | -0.0014 | -0.02% |
| USD/CAD | 1.4009 | +0.0005 | +0.04% |
| USD/MXN | 18.6963 | +0.0463 | +0.25% |
| USD/RUB (Fri) | 80.6455 | -1.25 | -1.55% |
Today’s calendar · GMT
| GMT | Event | Forecast | Previous |
|---|---|---|---|
| 06:00 | EUR · ECB Elderson speaks | — | — |
| 09:00 | EUR · German Ifo business expectations (Oct) | — | 90.4 |
| 09:00 | EUR · German Ifo current assessment (Oct) | — | 89.5 |
| 09:00 | EUR · German Ifo business climate (Oct) | 90.0 | 89.9 |
| 17:00 | USD · 2-year Treasury note auction | — | 4.787% |
All times are GMT, now also UK local time. “—” indicates no forecast or previous figure listed.
Market commentary
Equities and credit: Modest gains in US futures suggest an attempt to stabilise after Friday’s losses, while the mixed Asian session shows limited conviction. AI funding remains a key test: large investment plans continue to emerge, but access to capital and the allocation of financing risk are increasingly important. Confirmation of the terms and completion of SpaceX’s proposed debt transaction would help clarify whether credit remains available to diversified AI borrowers as specialist providers come under pressure.
Rates and currencies: Treasury yields are slightly lower from two years out, with the 10-year at 4.970%. German Ifo at 09:00 GMT is today’s main scheduled European activity reading, while the US 2-year auction tests demand ahead of the Fed. The heavier policy calendar later in the week gives investors reason to keep positioning flexible. UK fiscal announcements and central-bank guidance will both matter for sterling, gilts and the wider rates market.
Energy and emerging markets: Lower crude prices offer some relief, but Brent above $114 and WTI above $100 still imply pressure on consumers and energy-importing economies. Further military escalation or diplomatic progress could quickly change that balance. In Brazil, the election result and attempts to contest it put the real, domestic rates and equities in focus; Friday’s Bovespa gain predates the runoff outcome.
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