Morning Pack
Early market snapshot · 04:40–04:52 GMT
Asian markets
| Index | Last | Net | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nikkei 225 | 62,206.71 | -701.13 | -1.11% |
| Shanghai | 3,614.123 | -43.903 | -1.20% |
| Shenzhen | 11,175.853 | -181.467 | -1.60% |
| Hang Seng | 23,066.79 | +132.11 | +0.58% |
| ASX 200 | 8,777.30 | -15.90 | -0.18% |
| KOSPI | 5,477.85 | -55.92 | -1.01% |
| Straits Times | 5,409.88 | -5.26 | -0.10% |
| NZX 50 | 13,733.93 | -12.91 | -0.09% |
| Nifty 50 | 22,633.10 | -54.55 | -0.24% |
Hong Kong is the regional exception as Japan, South Korea and mainland China extend the weakness in technology shares. The KOSPI has recovered part of its earlier fall, while Australia and Singapore show smaller declines.
Overnight headlines
Nasdaq falls 2.60% as AI spending concerns hit technology
The Nasdaq Composite loses 694 points and the S&P 500 falls 1.21%, while the Dow and Russell 2000 edge higher. Meta falls 6.98% and Tesla 3.08%; the VIX rises to 19.03 as investors seek protection.
Treasuries rally as investors seek safety
The technology sell-off brings a strong bid for US government bonds despite higher oil prices. The 10-year yield is below 5%; early Friday trading sees a modest yield rebound to 4.970%.
OpenAI lowers valuation target in funding talks
The company is reportedly targeting $1.25tn in talks to raise around $30bn, down from $1.4tn discussed earlier. Negotiations remain ongoing and terms could change, keeping the financing of frontier AI in focus.
Calpers cuts direct exposure to Big Tech
The FT reports that Calpers reduced the combined number of shares it directly held in the Magnificent Seven by 26% in the first half of 2026. The report adds to attention on institutional concentration in the AI trade.
SK Hynix halts Solidigm’s US IPO review
The memory-chip group cites market conditions and share-price trends. Solidigm’s investment requirements remain unchanged, leaving alternative funding options under consideration; SK Hynix shares rebound from their initial drop.
Iran threatens wider retaliation if US attacks resume
Tehran warns that a renewed US-Israeli campaign could draw attacks on regional bases and civilian infrastructure, including airports and pipelines. Brent December futures rise to $113.66 and WTI December trades just above $100.
Trump invokes Defence Production Act for petroleum capacity
A presidential determination identifies domestic oil production, refining and logistics as essential to national defence, opening the way for support intended to expand capacity.
UK consumer confidence drops sharply to −24
The GfK index falls 11 points from −13 in September, its largest monthly decline since the pandemic. Households become more cautious about major purchases as inflation concerns rise, ahead of today’s retail-sales release.
Japan’s core inflation rises; factory PMI slows
September core CPI rises 2.1% year on year, matching forecasts and up from 1.7%; headline inflation is also 2.1%, while CPI excluding fresh food and energy is 2.4%. October manufacturing PMI slips to 53.3 from 54.1, while services PMI rises to 52.0 from 51.3.
Musk invests about $1bn in Skydance, CNBC reports
The reported investment adds another major media holding to Musk’s business interests, alongside continuing scrutiny of a potential Tesla–SpaceX combination.
US equity futures
| Contract | Last | Net | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dow | 52,920.0 | -148.00 | -0.28% |
| S&P 500 | 7,695.50 | -9.00 | -0.12% |
| Nasdaq 100 | 29,145.0 | +3.00 | +0.01% |
| Russell 2000 | 2,788.4 | -7.70 | -0.28% |
Implied cash open: Dow −144.98 (−0.27%); S&P −7.93 (−0.10%); Nasdaq 100 +6.31 (+0.02%); Russell −8.63 (−0.31%).
US cash close · Thursday 22 October
| Index | Close | Net | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dow Jones | 52,867.98 | +11.89 | +0.02% |
| Nasdaq Comp. | 26,008.859 | -693.999 | -2.60% |
| S&P 500 | 7,663.43 | -93.74 | -1.21% |
| Russell 2000 | 2,784.026 | +3.005 | +0.11% |
| VIX | 19.03 | +2.35 | +14.09% |
| TSX Comp. | 35,973.45 | -351.54 | -0.97% |
| TSX 60 | 2,141.35 | -13.30 | -0.62% |
| Mexico IPC | 69,889.73 | -359.81 | -0.51% |
| Bovespa | 204,120.12 | -2,375.11 | -1.15% |
US Treasuries
| Maturity | Yield | Δ pp | Δ bp |
|---|---|---|---|
| 6-month | 4.306% | +0.014 | +1.4 |
| 1-year | 4.397% | +0.023 | +2.3 |
| 2-year | 4.660% | +0.025 | +2.5 |
| 3-year | 4.728% | +0.020 | +2.0 |
| 5-year | 4.785% | +0.017 | +1.7 |
| 7-year | 4.865% | +0.017 | +1.7 |
| 10-year | 4.970% | +0.017 | +1.7 |
| 20-year | 5.341% | +0.013 | +1.3 |
| 30-year | 5.296% | +0.009 | +0.9 |
Early-session yield changes: pp = percentage points; bp = basis points. 2s10s: +31.0bp; 10s30s: +32.6bp.
Commodities
| Contract / asset | Last | Net | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| WTI Dec 26 | $100.07 | +0.60 | +0.60% |
| Brent Dec 26 | $113.66 | +0.49 | +0.43% |
| Nat gas Nov 26 | $2.735 | -0.061 | -2.18% |
| RBOB Nov 26 | $3.1806 | +0.0041 | +0.13% |
| Heating oil Nov 26 | $4.9850 | +0.0529 | +1.07% |
| Uranium Oct 26 | $90.15 | 0.00 | 0.00% |
| Lumber Nov 26 | $523.00 | 0.00 | 0.00% |
Foreign exchange
| Pair | Last | Net | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| EUR/USD | 1.1209 | -0.0005 | -0.04% |
| GBP/USD | 1.3389 | -0.0010 | -0.07% |
| EUR/GBP | 0.8371 | +0.0004 | +0.05% |
| USD/JPY | 156.95 | +0.19 | +0.12% |
| AUD/USD | 0.7007 | -0.0012 | -0.17% |
| NZD/USD | 0.5691 | +0.0009 | +0.16% |
| EUR/JPY | 175.94 | +0.15 | +0.09% |
| USD/CHF | 0.8213 | +0.0009 | +0.11% |
| EUR/CHF | 0.9206 | +0.0007 | +0.08% |
| USD/SGD | 1.2770 | +0.0005 | +0.04% |
| USD/HKD | 7.8411 | +0.0053 | +0.07% |
| USD/KRW | 1,324.99 | -0.22 | -0.02% |
| USD/CNY | 6.6727 | -0.0018 | -0.03% |
| USD/CAD | 1.4008 | 0.0000 | 0.00% |
| USD/MXN | 18.7308 | +0.0328 | +0.18% |
| USD/RUB | 81.8955 | -0.0176 | -0.02% |
Today’s calendar · GMT
| GMT | Event | Forecast | Previous |
|---|---|---|---|
| 06:00 | GBP · Core retail sales MoM (Sep) | −0.1% | 0.6% |
| 06:00 | GBP · Core retail sales YoY (Sep) | 1.5% | 2.7% |
| 06:00 | GBP · Retail sales YoY (Sep) | 1.0% | 2.4% |
| 06:00 | GBP · Retail sales MoM (Sep) | −0.2% | 0.5% |
| 07:30 | EUR · Germany manufacturing PMI (Oct, flash) | 53.5 | 53.9 |
| 07:30 | EUR · Germany services PMI (Oct, flash) | 52.5 | 52.9 |
| 08:00 | EUR · Eurozone manufacturing PMI (Oct, flash) | 52.7 | 52.9 |
| 08:00 | EUR · Eurozone composite PMI (Oct, flash) | 52.7 | 53.1 |
| 08:00 | EUR · Eurozone services PMI (Oct, flash) | 52.6 | 53.0 |
| 08:30 | GBP · UK composite PMI (Oct, flash) | 51.8 | 52.0 |
| 08:30 | GBP · UK manufacturing PMI (Oct, flash) | 51.8 | 51.9 |
| 08:30 | GBP · UK services PMI (Oct, flash) | 51.8 | 52.1 |
| 13:45 | USD · US manufacturing PMI (Oct, flash) | 55.4 | 55.9 |
| 13:45 | USD · US composite PMI (Oct, flash) | — | 58.4 |
| 13:45 | USD · US services PMI (Oct, flash) | 57.9 | 58.8 |
| 14:00 | USD · Michigan 1-year inflation expectations (Oct) | 4.7% | 4.6% |
| 14:00 | USD · Michigan 5-year inflation expectations (Oct) | 3.5% | 3.4% |
| 14:00 | USD · Michigan consumer expectations (Oct) | 47.3 | 46.3 |
| 14:00 | USD · Michigan consumer sentiment (Oct) | 46.3 | 48.1 |
| 17:00 | USD · Baker Hughes oil rig count | — | 459 |
| 17:00 | USD · Baker Hughes total rig count | — | 603 |
| 19:30 | GBP · CFTC GBP speculative net positions | — | −107.0k |
| 19:30 | USD · CFTC crude oil speculative net positions | — | 100.3k |
| 19:30 | USD · CFTC gold speculative net positions | — | 207.9k |
All times are GMT. UK local time is GMT+1 today. “—” indicates no forecast listed. Flash PMIs are preliminary readings.
Market commentary
Equities: The scale of the Nasdaq decline contrasts with the resilience of the Dow and small caps. That points to pressure concentrated in technology and AI exposure rather than an indiscriminate exit from US shares. The Solidigm IPO reversal and reported reduction in OpenAI’s valuation target add financing conditions to the debate over future AI returns. Nearly flat Nasdaq futures offer tentative stabilisation, but Asian losses show that confidence remains fragile.
Rates and currencies: Thursday’s Treasury rally restored the familiar pattern of bonds providing protection when shares fall. Early Friday yields are modestly higher, with the 10-year at 4.970%. The yen is also giving back a little of its gains, with USD/JPY at 156.95. Today’s flash PMIs will test whether activity is holding up as energy costs rise; the Michigan inflation-expectations readings will help distinguish a growth scare from a broader inflation problem.
UK and energy: The sharp fall in GfK confidence raises the stakes for September retail sales at 06:00 GMT and the UK PMIs at 08:30 GMT. Forecasts already point to softer consumption and slightly slower business growth. Brent above $113 and WTI above $100 keep household purchasing power and corporate margins under pressure. Before the weekend, watch whether geopolitical headlines reinforce the oil rally and whether weakness spreads from technology into credit and the wider equity market.
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