Morning Pack
Early European briefing · 06:02 GMT
Asian markets
Intraday snapshot · 04:43 GMT
| Index | Last | Net | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nikkei 225 | 63,595.58 | -1,025.66 | -1.59% |
| KOSPI | 5,586.89 | -148.77 | -2.59% |
| Hang Seng | 23,003.17 | -648.70 | -2.74% |
| Shanghai | 3,679.86 | -33.17 | -0.89% |
| ASX 200 | 8,803.20 | -28.10 | -0.32% |
Regional sell-off: Japanese technology and Korean memory-chip shares lead losses, while Hong Kong also falls sharply. Higher oil prices add to concerns about the cost and returns of AI investment.
Overnight headlines
AI sentiment weakens after Meta and Tesla results
US futures reverse Wednesday’s cash-market gains. Nasdaq 100 futures fall 1.63%, against a 0.42% decline in Dow futures, as investors reassess spending plans and growth expectations.
Tesla cuts annual capital spending plan
Q3 adjusted EPS is $0.48 versus $0.44 expected, while revenue of $28.05bn is slightly below $28.13bn expected. Operating income of $718m exceeds estimates. Full-year capex guidance falls to $20bn from $25bn, prompting questions about the timetable for AI and robotics projects.
Meta lifts spending floor and plans non-voting shares
Total revenue reaches $64.60bn; advertising contributes $63.06bn versus $61.85bn expected. Reported EPS is $3.83, affected by a legal charge. Q4 sales guidance is $73–76bn. Annual capex is now $135–145bn, versus $130–145bn previously, with a new share class intended to provide financing flexibility.
IBM beats on revenue and earnings
IBM reports $17.10bn revenue versus $16.83bn expected and operating EPS of $2.95 versus $2.86. Software revenue is $7.80bn versus $7.64bn expected; consulting is $5.34bn versus $5.39bn. Full-year constant-currency revenue growth guidance remains 4–5%.
SAP crosses €10bn in quarterly revenue
Non-IFRS revenue is €10.27bn versus €10.13bn expected. Cloud revenue of €6.67bn beats €6.57bn expected, while cloud and software revenue is €9.25bn versus €9.07bn. Enterprise cloud demand remains an area of strength.
Oil rises as reports point to further Iran strike planning
The New York Times reports US and Israeli preparations for possible renewed strikes after the US midterms. Iranian naval officials separately claim more ships have hit mines near Hormuz; those claims remain attributed to Iran. Brent December futures rise 2.25% to $111.27.
Saudi airport attack kills one and injures eight
The attack on King Fahd airport in Dammam adds to concerns about regional infrastructure and transport security.
US orders some diplomatic staff to leave Saudi Arabia
The State Department orders non-emergency government employees and their families to depart Saudi Arabia amid the threat of further attacks.
China intensifies pressure around Taiwan
The FT reports an expansion of maritime and other actions short of open conflict, aimed at isolating Taiwan and pressuring its partners.
Bank of Korea holds its policy rate at 3.00%
The unanimous decision follows consecutive rate increases. The pause gives policymakers time to assess their effect on activity and inflation.
New Zealand inflation slows more than expected
Q3 CPI rises 0.7% quarter on quarter, versus 0.8% expected and 1.5% previously. Annual inflation is 3.7%, versus 3.8% expected and 4.1% previously. Non-tradable inflation is 1.0% versus 1.2% expected; tradable inflation is 0.2%, matching forecasts.
Nokia benefits from AI and data-centre demand
Network infrastructure sales grow 17% year on year as AI and cloud investment supports orders. Full-year operating profit guidance is maintained.
SEB pauses share buybacks as capital needs rise
The Swedish bank reports profit below expectations and suspends repurchases, citing loan growth and temporarily higher capital requirements.
US equity futures
| Contract | Last | Net | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dow | 52,834.0 | -225.00 | -0.42% |
| S&P 500 | 7,732.75 | -67.50 | -0.87% |
| Nasdaq 100 | 29,517.75 | -489.25 | -1.63% |
| Russell 2000 | 2,772.3 | -21.90 | -0.78% |
Implied cash open: Dow −235.09 (−0.44%); S&P −65.42 (−0.84%); Nasdaq 100 −494.77 (−1.65%); Russell −21.72 (−0.78%).
US cash close · Wednesday 21 October
| Index | Close | Net | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dow Jones | 52,856.09 | +360.21 | +0.69% |
| Nasdaq Comp. | 26,702.858 | +278.041 | +1.05% |
| S&P 500 | 7,757.17 | +44.60 | +0.58% |
| Russell 2000 | 2,781.021 | +7.601 | +0.27% |
| VIX | 16.68 | UNCH | UNCH |
| TSX Comp. | 36,324.99 | +217.03 | +0.60% |
| TSX 60 | 2,154.65 | +13.85 | +0.65% |
| Mexico IPC | 70,249.54 | +990.96 | +1.43% |
| Bovespa | 206,495.23 | -1,800.75 | -0.86% |
US Treasuries
| Maturity | Yield | Δ pp | Δ bp |
|---|---|---|---|
| 6-month | 4.374% | +0.007 | +0.7 |
| 1-year | 4.501% | +0.002 | +0.2 |
| 2-year | 4.780% | -0.043 | -4.3 |
| 3-year | 4.862% | -0.048 | -4.8 |
| 5-year | 4.920% | -0.050 | -5.0 |
| 7-year | 4.998% | -0.055 | -5.5 |
| 10-year | 5.088% | -0.058 | -5.8 |
| 20-year | 5.437% | -0.058 | -5.8 |
| 30-year | 5.383% | -0.054 | -5.4 |
pp = percentage points; bp = basis points. Yield changes are shown with their direction. 2s10s: +30.8bp; 10s30s: +29.5bp.
Commodities
| Contract / asset | Last | Net | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| WTI Dec 26 | $99.13 | +1.98 | +2.04% |
| Brent Dec 26 | $111.27 | +2.45 | +2.25% |
| Nat gas Nov 26 | $2.763 | -0.027 | -0.97% |
| RBOB Nov 26 | $3.1744 | +0.0539 | +1.73% |
| Heating oil Nov 26 | $4.8664 | +0.1031 | +2.16% |
| Uranium Oct 26 | $90.05 | 0.00 | 0.00% |
| Lumber Nov 26 | $521.50 | 0.00 | 0.00% |
| Gold | $4,089.245 | -51.50 | -1.24% |
Foreign exchange
| Pair | Last | Net | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| EUR/USD | 1.1249 | +0.0017 | +0.15% |
| GBP/USD | 1.3402 | +0.0008 | +0.06% |
| EUR/GBP | 0.8390 | +0.0005 | +0.06% |
| USD/JPY | 157.36 | -0.77 | -0.49% |
| AUD/USD | 0.7014 | -0.0013 | -0.19% |
| NZD/USD | 0.5691 | -0.0009 | -0.16% |
| EUR/JPY | 176.99 | -0.61 | -0.34% |
| USD/CHF | 0.8211 | -0.0033 | -0.40% |
| EUR/CHF | 0.9237 | -0.0018 | -0.19% |
| USD/SGD | 1.2766 | -0.0004 | -0.03% |
| USD/HKD | 7.8454 | -0.0015 | -0.02% |
| USD/KRW | 1,323.70 | -3.01 | -0.23% |
| USD/CNY | 6.6742 | -0.0016 | -0.02% |
| USD/CAD | 1.4025 | -0.0020 | -0.14% |
| USD/MXN | 18.7690 | +0.0991 | +0.53% |
| USD/RUB | 81.46 | -0.4531 | -0.55% |
Today’s calendar · GMT
| GMT | Event | Forecast | Previous |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10:50 | GBP · BoE Bailey speaks | — | — |
| 12:30 | USD · Continuing jobless claims | 1,720k | 1,710k |
| 12:30 | USD · Initial jobless claims | 200k | 199k |
| 14:00 | USD · Leading index MoM (Sep) | −0.1% | −0.1% |
| 20:30 | USD · Fed balance sheet | — | $6,756bn |
Times are GMT. UK local time is GMT+1 today. “—” indicates no forecast or previous figure listed.
Market commentary
Equities: Wednesday’s US rally has given way to another test of the AI investment story. The heavier decline in Nasdaq futures and the Asian chip sell-off show that earnings beats alone are failing to settle concerns about future returns. Meta’s higher spending floor and Tesla’s lower capex plan are producing different questions: how to finance growth at one company, and how quickly projects can be delivered at the other. SAP’s cloud strength is a useful counterpoint to the broader weakness.
Rates and FX: Lower Treasury yields and gains in the yen and Swiss franc are consistent with a more defensive market tone. The 10-year yield is 5.088%, down 5.8bp, with 2s10s at +30.8bp. US claims at 12:30 GMT provide the next labour-market check: a material surprise could alter the balance between inflation concerns and growth concerns. Bailey’s 10:50 GMT appearance is the main scheduled UK event.
Energy: Brent above $111 and WTI close to $100 leave markets exposed to renewed inflation pressure even as bonds rally. Strike-planning reports, the Saudi airport attack and attributed claims of further mine incidents keep transport and supply disruption in focus. That combination can squeeze energy-importing economies and corporate margins. Watch whether crude holds its overnight gains and whether credit and volatility begin to reflect the weaker equity outlook.
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