CHARTING NEWS
Morning Market Pack
Top headlines
- Korea's “bipolar” market swings from meltdown to a record rally
- Big Tech AI spending spree tops $1tn
- Korean stocks surge by a record 18% as AI-trade optimism returns
- Microsoft posts biggest one-day market-cap gain for any US company
- Japan intervenes to support the yen before the BOJ decision
- BOJ holds its policy rate at 1.0% and upgrades the economic outlook
- Amazon beats estimates as AWS revenue growth accelerates
- Apple sales beat overshadowed by weak guidance and supply constraints
- Hormuz traffic recovery tempers the war premium in crude oil
- Anthropic models hacked three outside organisations during testing
Asia-Pacific
| Market | Last | Net | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nikkei 225 | 64,301.80 | +2,434.37 | +3.93% |
| Shanghai Composite | 3,835.318 | +30.625 | +0.80% |
| Shenzhen Component | 13,709.951 | +424.151 | +3.19% |
| Hang Seng | 25,802.01 | -56.87 | -0.22% |
| ASX 200 | 8,978.70 | +11.00 | +0.12% |
| Kospi | 6,610.11 | +1,016.55 | +18.17% |
| Straits Times | 5,626.65 | -46.93 | -0.83% |
| NZX 50 | 13,699.28 | -63.50 | -0.46% |
Asia commentary: The rebound is highly concentrated in technology and semiconductors. South Korea's move is exceptional and reflects both short-covering and renewed AI optimism after the previous rout. Japan also rallied strongly despite weaker retail sales, while the BOJ kept rates unchanged at 1.0%. Mainland Chinese equities advanced even though official manufacturing and non-manufacturing PMIs slipped below 50.
US previous close
| Index | Close | Net | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dow Jones | 52,208.06 | +613.92 | +1.19% |
| Nasdaq Composite | 25,122.177 | +679.235 | +2.78% |
| S&P 500 | 7,437.63 | +121.48 | +1.66% |
| Russell 2000 | 2,946.101 | +39.791 | +1.37% |
| VIX | 17.09 | UNCH | UNCH |
US commentary: Wall Street finished sharply higher, led by technology after Microsoft posted a record one-day increase in market value. Amazon's results added to the positive tone, with net sales of $200.6bn and AWS sales of $42.23bn both above expectations. Apple beat quarterly estimates but weak guidance and supply constraints weighed on the shares after hours.
US futures
| Contract | Last | Day move | Implied open |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dow futures | 52,623.0 | +243.00 (+0.46%) | +174.94 (+0.33%) |
| S&P futures | 7,509.25 | +36.75 (+0.49%) | +19.62 (+0.26%) |
| Nasdaq futures | 28,583.5 | +345.75 (+1.22%) | +217.15 (+0.77%) |
| Russell 2000 futures | 2,969.1 | +14.80 (+0.50%) | +6.00 (+0.20%) |
US Treasuries
| Maturity | Yield | Change | Basis points |
|---|---|---|---|
| 6-month | 3.966% | +0.020 | +2.0bp |
| 1-year | 4.045% | +0.023 | +2.3bp |
| 2-year | 4.233% | +0.004 | +0.4bp |
| 3-year | 4.282% | -0.001 | -0.1bp |
| 5-year | 4.368% | -0.005 | -0.5bp |
| 7-year | 4.506% | -0.010 | -1.0bp |
| 10-year | 4.651% | -0.012 | -1.2bp |
| 20-year | 5.201% | -0.014 | -1.4bp |
| 30-year | 5.191% | -0.016 | -1.6bp |
Rates commentary: The curve is mixed, with the very front end slightly higher but intermediate and long maturities easing. The 10-year yield remains elevated at 4.651% and the 30-year at 5.191%, keeping financial conditions restrictive despite the modest overnight rally in bonds.
FX
| Pair | Last | Net | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| USD/JPY | 160.49 | +0.98 | +0.61% |
| EUR/USD | 1.1509 | -0.0018 | -0.1562% |
| GBP/USD | 1.3446 | -0.0018 | -0.1337% |
| EUR/GBP | 0.8558 | -0.0001 | -0.0117% |
| USD/CHF | 0.8071 | +0.0021 | +0.2609% |
| AUD/USD | 0.7029 | +0.0004 | +0.06% |
FX commentary: The yen is again weakening after reported intervention ahead of the BOJ decision, with USD/JPY back above 160. Both the euro and sterling are softer against the dollar, while the Swiss franc is also weaker. The currency market remains highly sensitive to official Japanese action and any change in US rate expectations.
Commodities
| Commodity | Last | Net | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| WTI crude (Sep) | $81.66 | -1.93 | -2.31% |
| Brent crude (Sep) | $87.10 | -1.93 | -2.17% |
| Natural gas (Sep) | $2.772 | +0.014 | +0.51% |
| Gold | $4,080.130 | -22.91 | -0.56% |
Commodities commentary: Crude is retreating as recovering traffic through the Strait of Hormuz reduces the immediate supply-risk premium. Gold is also lower as the dollar firms and markets continue to debate the path of US rates.
Economic calendar — GMT
| Time | Currency | Event | Actual | Forecast | Previous |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06:00 | GBP | Nationwide HPI YoY (Jul) | 1.8% | 1.9% | 2.2% |
| 06:00 | GBP | Nationwide HPI MoM (Jul) | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| 07:55 | EUR | German unemployment change (Jul) | — | 5K | -1K |
| 07:55 | EUR | German unemployment rate (Jul) | — | 6.3% | 6.3% |
| 09:00 | EUR | Core CPI YoY (Jul, prelim.) | — | 2.4% | 2.4% |
| 09:00 | EUR | CPI YoY (Jul, prelim.) | — | 2.9% | 2.8% |
| 09:00 | EUR | CPI MoM (Jul, prelim.) | — | — | -0.1% |
| 11:15 | GBP | BoE MPC member Pill speaks | — | — | — |
| 12:30 | USD | Employment Cost Index QoQ (Q2) | — | 0.8% | 0.9% |
| 13:45 | USD | Chicago PMI (Jul) | — | 56.0 | 56.7 |
| 14:00 | USD | Michigan 1-year inflation expectations (Jul) | — | 4.2% | 4.6% |
| 14:00 | USD | Michigan 5-year inflation expectations (Jul) | — | 3.3% | 3.3% |
| 14:00 | USD | Michigan consumer expectations (Jul) | — | 54.0 | 50.7 |
| 14:00 | USD | Michigan consumer sentiment (Jul) | — | 54.4 | 49.5 |
Today's focus
The market is balancing a sharp recovery in global technology shares against still-elevated bond yields and geopolitical risk. Watch whether the Kospi's record rebound holds into the close, whether USD/JPY remains above 160 after intervention, and whether the Nasdaq can sustain its futures-led advance. European inflation data and the US Employment Cost Index are the main scheduled macro catalysts, followed by final Michigan inflation expectations and sentiment.
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