Morning Market Pack
Thursday 30 July 2026
Market snapshot approximately 04:54 GMT. Prices may have moved since capture.
Overnight view: Asian risk appetite remained fragile after the Fed-driven bond rout and the sharp sell-off in US equities. Japan recovered modestly, but mainland China, Korea, Australia, Singapore and New Zealand traded lower. US index futures pointed to a partial rebound, led by technology, while long-dated Treasury yields stayed above 5% and oil eased.
Key overnight headlines
- US borrowing costs hit 19-year high as Fed defies inflation fearsFinancial Times
- Kevin Warsh asked the market to speak. It answered.Wall Street Journal
- Early dissents versus Fed chief Warsh are the most since 1970Reuters
- Meta stumbles as tech investors demand better answers on AI spendingWall Street Journal
- Meta shares tumble as Zuckerberg tries to sell his vision for AI agentsFinancial Times
- Microsoft signs $130bn in data-centre leases as it races to meet AI demandFinancial Times
- Chinese carmakers pile pressure on UK rivals, industry chief saysReuters
- U.S. stocks slide after Fed pause and escalation in Iran warWall Street Journal
Asia-Pacific
| Market | Level | Net change (% change) |
|---|---|---|
| Nikkei 225 | 61,912.47 | +478.28 (+0.78%) |
| Shanghai Composite | 3,784.552 | -43.917 (-1.15%) |
| Shenzhen Component | 13,141.219 | -517.225 (-3.79%) |
| Hang Seng | 25,798.93 | -8.99 (-0.03%) |
| ASX 200 | 8,970.60 | -68.00 (-0.75%) |
| KOSPI | 5,587.93 | -75.31 (-1.33%) |
| Straits Times | 5,669.09 | -44.10 (-0.77%) |
| NZX 50 | 13,777.79 | -198.88 (-1.42%) |
Asia commentary: The modest Nikkei rebound contrasted with pronounced weakness in Shenzhen and continued pressure on Korean equities. The regional tape suggests that the AI and semiconductor de-rating remains the dominant equity theme, with geopolitical and policy uncertainty adding to the risk-off bias.
US cash close — Wednesday
| Market | Level | Net change (% change) |
|---|---|---|
| Dow Jones | 51,594.14 | -1,153.18 (-2.19%) |
| Nasdaq Composite | 24,442.942 | -433.97 (-1.74%) |
| S&P 500 | 7,316.15 | -112.63 (-1.52%) |
| Russell 2000 | 2,906.31 | -47.491 (-1.61%) |
| VIX | 20.66 | +2.45 (+13.45%) |
US futures
| Contract | Last | Day change | Implied open |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dow futures | 51,838.0 | +73.00 (+0.14%) | -1.14 (0.00%) |
| S&P 500 futures | 7,372.5 | +21.25 (+0.29%) | +3.35 (+0.05%) |
| Nasdaq 100 futures | 27,484.5 | +142.50 (+0.52%) | +37.19 (+0.14%) |
| Russell 2000 futures | 2,917.1 | +1.70 (+0.06%) | -6.21 (-0.21%) |
US commentary: Futures recovered only part of Wednesday’s losses. Microsoft’s strong cloud numbers supported Nasdaq futures, but the broader backdrop remained cautious after the Dow fell more than 1,100 points and the VIX closed above 20. Meta’s spending outlook reinforced the market’s increasingly selective response to AI investment.
US Treasuries
| Maturity | Yield | Move |
|---|---|---|
| US 6-month | 3.965% | +1.8 bp |
| US 1-year | 4.057% | +3.2 bp |
| US 2-year | 4.289% | +5.3 bp |
| US 3-year | 4.343% | +6.5 bp |
| US 5-year | 4.430% | +7.8 bp |
| US 7-year | 4.566% | +8.2 bp |
| US 10-year | 4.708% | +8.6 bp |
| US 20-year | 5.254% | +10.0 bp |
| US 30-year | 5.236% | +9.3 bp |
Rates commentary: The curve bear-steepened sharply. The 10-year yield stood at 4.708%, up 8.6bp, while the 30-year reached 5.236%, up 9.3bp and near its highest level since 2007. The move reflects concern that the Fed’s unchanged stance may not be sufficiently restrictive against persistent inflation and renewed energy-price risk.
Foreign exchange
| Pair | Price | Net change (% change) |
|---|---|---|
| USD/JPY | 163.49 | +0.11 (+0.07%) |
| AUD/USD | 0.6951 | -0.0003 (-0.04%) |
| NZD/USD | 0.5805 | +0.0011 (+0.19%) |
| EUR/USD | 1.1450 | -0.0015 (-0.13%) |
| GBP/USD | 1.3344 | -0.0025 (-0.19%) |
| EUR/GBP | 0.8579 | +0.0006 (+0.07%) |
| USD/CHF | 0.8155 | +0.0019 (+0.23%) |
| USD/CNY | 6.7599 | -0.0062 (-0.09%) |
| USD/KRW | 1,440.33 | -1.76 (-0.12%) |
FX commentary: The dollar was mixed rather than uniformly stronger. USD/JPY remained elevated above 163, sterling softened against the dollar and the euro edged lower, while the Swiss franc also weakened. The yen’s persistent weakness keeps intervention risk in view even as Japanese officials avoid targeting a specific level.
Commodities
| Commodity | Price | Net change (% change) |
|---|---|---|
| WTI crude (Sep) | $83.76 | -$0.70 (-0.83%) |
| Brent crude (Sep) | $89.80 | -$0.94 (-1.04%) |
| Natural gas (Sep) | $2.734 | +$0.012 (+0.44%) |
| RBOB gasoline (Aug) | $3.3521 | -$0.0457 (-1.34%) |
| Heating oil (Aug) | $4.3151 | -$0.0550 (-1.26%) |
| Gold | $4,042.97 | -$35.47 (-0.87%) |
Commodities commentary: Crude eased despite renewed US-Iran strikes, suggesting that traders were balancing immediate geopolitical risk against demand concerns and the possibility that diplomacy may still contain disruption to regional supply. Gold also retreated as higher real and nominal yields raised the opportunity cost of holding the metal.
Today’s economic calendar — GMT
| Time | Cur. | Event | Forecast | Previous |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08:00 | EUR | German GDP YoY (Q2, prelim.) | 0.6% | 0.4% |
| 08:00 | EUR | German GDP QoQ (Q2, prelim.) | 0.1% | 0.3% |
| 09:00 | EUR | Eurozone GDP QoQ (Q2, prelim.) | 0.2% | -0.2% |
| 09:00 | EUR | Eurozone GDP YoY (Q2, prelim.) | 0.5% | 0.3% |
| 09:00 | EUR | Eurozone unemployment rate (Jun) | 6.2% | 6.2% |
| 11:00 | GBP | Bank of England rate decision | 3.75% | 3.75% |
| 11:00 | GBP | BoE MPC vote: hike / unchanged / cut | 2 / 7 / 0 | 2 / 7 / 0 |
| 11:30 | GBP | BoE Governor Bailey speaks | — | — |
| 12:00 | EUR | German CPI MoM (Jul, prelim.) | 0.7% | -0.3% |
| 12:00 | EUR | German CPI YoY (Jul, prelim.) | 2.7% | 2.3% |
| 12:30 | USD | Continuing jobless claims | 1,800K | 1,796K |
| 12:30 | USD | Core PCE price index MoM (Jun) | 0.2% | 0.3% |
| 12:30 | USD | Core PCE price index YoY (Jun) | 3.3% | 3.4% |
| 12:30 | USD | Core PCE prices (Q2, prelim.) | 3.50% | 4.40% |
| 12:30 | USD | US GDP QoQ (Q2, prelim.) | 2.1% | 2.1% |
| 12:30 | USD | US GDP price index QoQ (Q2, prelim.) | 4.1% | 3.6% |
| 12:30 | USD | Initial jobless claims | 201K | 187K |
| 12:30 | USD | PCE price index MoM (Jun) | -0.1% | 0.4% |
| 12:30 | USD | PCE price index YoY (Jun) | 3.7% | 4.1% |
| 12:30 | USD | Personal spending MoM (Jun) | 0.4% | 0.7% |
| 13:15 | GBP | BoE Governor Bailey speaks | — | — |
| 14:00 | USD | Atlanta Fed GDPNow (Q3) | — | — |
| 20:30 | USD | Federal Reserve balance sheet | — | $6,747B |
Today’s focus: The Bank of England decision and vote split will lead the European session. The main global test arrives at 12:30 GMT with US GDP, core PCE, headline PCE and jobless claims. A firmer inflation print or stronger GDP-price index would reinforce the bond market’s hawkish message; softer data could provide relief after Wednesday’s severe equity and duration sell-off.
No comments:
Post a Comment