Morning Pack — Monday, 3 August 2026
Market levels captured approximately 06:45–06:57 BST. Calendar times shown in GMT.
Overnight: Oil has fallen sharply as hopes of renewed U.S.–Iran negotiations strip out part of the war premium. The yen has strengthened after rare coordinated U.S.–Japan intervention, while Asian equities are mixed and South Korea remains the standout laggard. U.S. futures point to a firmer open.
Overnight Headlines
- Oil tumbles as Trump cancels attack on Iran to pursue a dealReuters
- U.S. dollar weakens sharply against the yen after coordinated interventionAP
- Why the U.S. stepped in to support Japan’s yen — and what is at stakeThe Guardian
- China factory growth slows to a four-month low in JulyReuters
- China’s private manufacturing gauge shows weaker activity growthWSJ
- Oracle credit risk hits a record as AI-related debt concerns deepenYahoo Finance
- What credit-default swaps are and why AI-linked debt is unsettling marketsReuters
- Oil slides after Trump says talks with Iran will resumeFT
Asia-Pacific
| Market | Level | Net | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nikkei 225 | 63,683.84 | -678.18 | -1.05% |
| Shanghai | 3,803.209 | -29.054 | -0.76% |
| Shenzhen | 13,472.55 | -106.38 | -0.78% |
| Hang Seng | 25,912.73 | +28.30 | +0.11% |
| ASX 200 | 8,991.60 | +14.80 | +0.16% |
| KOSPI | 6,260.12 | -335.33 | -5.08% |
| Straits Times | 5,609.58 | -18.92 | -0.34% |
| NZX 50 | 13,774.93 | +75.65 | +0.55% |
Commentary: The region is sharply divided. The KOSPI is down more than 5%, extending the reversal in Korean technology shares, while Japan and mainland China are also lower. Hong Kong, Australia and New Zealand are modestly positive. The yen’s intervention-driven rally is weighing on Japanese exporters.
United States — Previous Close
| Market | Level | Net | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dow | 52,485.03 | +276.97 | +0.53% |
| Nasdaq | 25,373.853 | +251.676 | +1.00% |
| S&P 500 | 7,489.72 | +52.09 | +0.70% |
| Russell 2000 | 2,931.339 | -14.762 | -0.50% |
| VIX | 15.99 | -1.10 | -6.44% |
Commentary: The large-cap indices finished higher, led by the Nasdaq, while small caps lagged. The VIX fell 6.44%, signalling a calmer equity-volatility backdrop despite the sharp cross-asset moves in oil and currencies.
U.S. Futures
| Market | Level | Net | % | Implied | % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dow futures | 52,921.0 | +286.00 | +0.54% | +200.97 | +0.38% |
| S&P futures | 7,563.0 | +43.75 | +0.58% | +23.28 | +0.31% |
| Nasdaq futures | 28,634.75 | +230.50 | +0.81% | +115.56 | +0.41% |
| Russell futures | 2,960.1 | +22.10 | +0.75% | +11.76 | +0.40% |
“Implied” compares futures with fair value and indicates the approximate cash-market opening move.
U.S. Treasuries
| Tenor | Yield | Change |
|---|---|---|
| 6M | 3.955% | +0.7 bp |
| 1Y | 4.050% | -0.9 bp |
| 2Y | 4.246% | -4.5 bp |
| 3Y | 4.305% | -5.0 bp |
| 5Y | 4.401% | -5.9 bp |
| 7Y | 4.542% | -6.0 bp |
| 10Y | 4.690% | -5.5 bp |
| 20Y | 5.246% | -4.9 bp |
| 30Y | 5.233% | -4.2 bp |
Commentary: The curve is rallying from two years outward. The 10-year yield is down 5.5 bp to 4.690%, while the 30-year is down 4.2 bp to 5.233%. The long end remains historically elevated, but today’s move is a clear retracement from last week’s sell-off.
Foreign Exchange
| Pair | Level | Net | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| USD/JPY | 156.39 | -1.18 | -0.75% |
| EUR/USD | 1.1536 | +0.0009 | +0.08% |
| GBP/USD | 1.3473 | -0.0007 | -0.05% |
| AUD/USD | 0.7034 | +0.0013 | +0.19% |
| USD/KRW | 1,427.20 | -14.89 | -1.03% |
| USD/CNY | 6.7510 | +0.0001 | +0.00% |
Commentary: USD/JPY is the dominant move, down roughly 0.75% at 156.39 following coordinated intervention. The Korean won is also stronger. EUR/USD is slightly firmer, while sterling is little changed to modestly softer against the dollar.
Commodities
| Asset | Level | Net | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| WTI crude | $79.76 | -$4.91 | -5.80% |
| Brent crude | $83.50 | -$4.43 | -5.04% |
| Natural gas | $2.763 | +$0.016 | +0.58% |
| Gold | $4,065.14 | +$23.96 | +0.59% |
| RBOB gasoline | $3.0115 | -$0.1027 | -3.30% |
Commentary: Oil is the major cross-asset story. WTI is down 5.80% and Brent 5.04% as diplomatic hopes reduce the immediate supply-risk premium. Gold is up 0.59%, benefiting from lower Treasury yields and residual geopolitical uncertainty.
Economic Calendar — GMT
| Time | Cur. | Event | Forecast | Previous |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06:00 | EUR | German Retail Sales (MoM) (Jun) | -0.4% | 1.1% |
| 07:55 | EUR | HCOB Germany Manufacturing PMI (Jul) | 52.2 | 52.2 |
| 08:00 | EUR | HCOB Eurozone Manufacturing PMI (Jul) | 52.0 | 52.0 |
| 08:30 | GBP | S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (Jul) | 52.8 | 52.8 |
| 13:45 | USD | S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (Jul) | 53.8 | 53.8 |
| 14:00 | USD | Construction Spending (MoM) (Jun) | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| 14:00 | USD | ISM Manufacturing Employment (Jul) | — | 49.7 |
| 14:00 | USD | ISM Manufacturing PMI (Jul) | 54.0 | 53.3 |
| 14:00 | USD | ISM Manufacturing Prices (Jul) | 70.0 | 73.0 |
| 15:30 | USD | Atlanta Fed GDPNow (Q3) | — | — |
What to watch: Final European and UK manufacturing PMIs arrive through the morning. The main U.S. focus is the 14:00 GMT ISM manufacturing release, particularly the prices component after last week’s renewed inflation concerns. Construction spending and the Atlanta Fed GDPNow update complete the session.
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