Morning Pack
Thursday, 16 July 2026 · Market data captured around 06:45–06:57 BST
Market tone: Asia is sharply split. Japan and South Korea are under heavy pressure from the regional AI/semiconductor sell-off, while Hong Kong is rallying. US futures are little changed to slightly firmer, oil is easing, and Treasury yields are higher across the curve.
Top Headlines
- TSMC second-quarter profit jumps more than 23%, beating estimates as high-end AI chip demand remains strong
- US strikes on Iran strengthen Trump’s options for further escalation, officials say
- US will not win the Iran war from the air, Trump’s former defence chief warns
- US military says latest strikes on Iran included targets around Bandar Abbas
- South Korea’s Kospi tumbles as Asia’s AI and semiconductor rout deepens
- Downing Street calls in private-equity leaders amid concerns over London listings
- British Steel enters public ownership as the UK moves to protect strategic steelmaking capacity
Asia-Pacific
| Index | Last | Net | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nikkei 225 | 66,944.01 | −1,807.50 | −2.63% |
| Shanghai Composite | 3,911.684 | −43.894 | −1.11% |
| Shenzhen Component | 14,587.362 | −192.034 | −1.30% |
| Hang Seng | 25,215.75 | +534.65 | +2.17% |
| ASX 200 | 8,842.00 | +0.90 | +0.01% |
| Kospi | 6,951.36 | −333.05 | −4.57% |
| Straits Times | 5,546.72 | −13.00 | −0.23% |
| NZX 50 | 13,615.51 | −19.56 | −0.14% |
US Close
| Index | Close | Net | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dow Jones | 52,658.64 | +150.37 | +0.29% |
| Nasdaq Composite | 26,269.227 | +162.219 | +0.62% |
| S&P 500 | 7,572.40 | +28.81 | +0.38% |
| Russell 2000 | 2,976.259 | +11.495 | +0.39% |
| VIX | 15.67 | −0.83 | −5.03% |
US Futures
| Contract | Last | Day net / % | Implied open |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dow futures | 52,959.0 | +59.00 / +0.11% | +60.36 / +0.11% |
| S&P futures | 7,620.75 | +6.00 / +0.08% | −3.65 / −0.05% |
| Nasdaq futures | 29,707.25 | +14.00 / +0.05% | +4.65 / +0.02% |
| Russell 2000 futures | 2,997.4 | +5.60 / +0.19% | −3.86 / −0.13% |
US Treasury Yields
| Maturity | Yield | Move |
|---|---|---|
| 6-month | 3.907% | +1.6 bp |
| 1-year | 3.994% | +3.1 bp |
| 2-year | 4.153% | +2.5 bp |
| 3-year | 4.198% | +2.3 bp |
| 5-year | 4.275% | +2.0 bp |
| 7-year | 4.408% | +1.6 bp |
| 10-year | 4.559% | +1.4 bp |
| 20-year | 5.091% | +1.3 bp |
| 30-year | 5.092% | +0.9 bp |
FX
| Pair | Rate | Net | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| USD/JPY | 162.13 | −0.05 | −0.0308% |
| EUR/USD | 1.1463 | Unchanged | Unchanged |
| GBP/USD | 1.3530 | −0.0009 | −0.0665% |
| EUR/GBP | 0.8470 | +0.0005 | +0.06% |
| USD/CHF | 0.8061 | +0.0011 | +0.1366% |
| USD/CAD | 1.4049 | +0.0008 | +0.06% |
| USD/CNY | 6.7667 | −0.0015 | −0.0222% |
| USD/KRW | 1,483.79 | −1.25 | −0.0842% |
Commodities
| Contract | Price | Net | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| WTI crude (Aug) | $79.37 | −$0.23 | −0.29% |
| Brent crude (Sep) | $84.55 | −$0.40 | −0.47% |
| Natural gas (Aug) | $2.904 | −$0.020 | −0.68% |
| RBOB gasoline (Aug) | $3.2843 | −$0.0166 | −0.50% |
| Heating oil (Aug) | $3.9377 | −$0.0106 | −0.27% |
| Uranium (Jul) | $85.30 | Unchanged | Unchanged |
Economic Calendar — BST (GMT+1)
| Time | Event | Forecast | Previous |
|---|---|---|---|
| 07:00 | UK Industrial Production MoM (May) | −0.1% | 0.0% |
| 07:00 | UK Manufacturing Production MoM (May) | −0.2% | 0.4% |
| 07:00 | UK Monthly GDP 3M/3M (May) | 0.5% | 0.7% |
| 07:00 | UK Trade Balance (May) | −£23.10bn | −£26.05bn |
| 10:00 | Eurozone Trade Balance (May) | €2.8bn | −€1.0bn |
| 12:00 | NIESR Monthly GDP Tracker (Jun) | — | 0.5% |
| 13:30 | US Continuing Jobless Claims | 1.820m | 1.814m |
| 13:30 | US Core Retail Sales MoM (Jun) | 0.0% | 0.8% |
| 13:30 | US Initial Jobless Claims | 216k | 215k |
| 13:30 | Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (Jul) | 12.7 | 10.3 |
| 13:30 | US Retail Control MoM (Jun) | 0.5% | 0.7% |
| 13:30 | US Retail Sales MoM (Jun) | 0.2% | 0.9% |
| 15:00 | US Business Inventories MoM (May) | 0.3% | 0.5% |
| 15:00 | US Pending Home Sales MoM (Jun) | −0.5% | 3.8% |
| 15:00 | US Retail Inventories ex-Autos (May) | 0.4% | 0.6% |
Market Commentary
Asia: The headline move is the renewed technology unwind. The Kospi’s 4.57% fall and Nikkei’s 2.63% decline contrast sharply with Hong Kong’s 2.17% advance, helped by strength in selected Chinese technology names. TSMC’s strong profit result confirms that demand for leading-edge chips remains robust, but it has not prevented pressure on more crowded or leveraged parts of the regional AI trade.
Rates and FX: Treasury yields are higher by roughly 1–3 basis points across the curve. The dollar is mixed rather than decisively stronger; sterling is a little softer while the yen is broadly steady near 162 per dollar.
Oil and geopolitics: Crude is edging lower after its recent war-driven rally, but the risk premium remains elevated. Fresh US strikes and uncertainty around the Strait of Hormuz keep energy markets vulnerable to sudden headline-driven moves.
Today’s focus: UK activity data arrives first, followed by a dense 13:30 BST US release slate. Retail sales, jobless claims and the Philadelphia Fed survey will be the main macro test for markets after softer inflation reduced expectations of further Fed tightening.
Rates and FX: Treasury yields are higher by roughly 1–3 basis points across the curve. The dollar is mixed rather than decisively stronger; sterling is a little softer while the yen is broadly steady near 162 per dollar.
Oil and geopolitics: Crude is edging lower after its recent war-driven rally, but the risk premium remains elevated. Fresh US strikes and uncertainty around the Strait of Hormuz keep energy markets vulnerable to sudden headline-driven moves.
Today’s focus: UK activity data arrives first, followed by a dense 13:30 BST US release slate. Retail sales, jobless claims and the Philadelphia Fed survey will be the main macro test for markets after softer inflation reduced expectations of further Fed tightening.
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