Overnight Headlines 15th July 2026

 

Morning Market Pack

Wednesday 15 July 2026 • Market snapshots supplied around 05:42–05:52 UK time • Calendar shown in GMT

Risk tone improves, but the backdrop remains fragile. Asian equities are mostly higher after softer US inflation reduced rate-hike expectations, while US index futures point to a firmer open. Oil is still climbing as Washington restarts its blockade of Iranian ports and the Strait of Hormuz remains the dominant geopolitical risk. China’s Q2 growth slowed to 4.3%, reinforcing pressure for further policy support.

Top Headlines

• Trump’s return to war with Iran offers no clear path to victory — Financial Times
• Trump reverses 20% Strait of Hormuz toll as the US restarts its blockade of Iranian ports — Wall Street Journal
• China reports its lowest GDP growth in more than three years — Financial Times
• IBM loses $69bn of market value in one day in an AI-fuelled sell-off — Wall Street Journal
• IBM shares plunge 25% as customers shift spending towards AI infrastructure — Financial Times
• Blockbuster stock sales threaten to overwhelm the bull market — Wall Street Journal
• The battle for Hormuz moves the Iran war into a dangerous new phase — Wall Street Journal
• Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s semiannual Monetary Policy Report testimony — Federal Reserve

Asia-Pacific Equities

Index	Last	Net	% Change
Nikkei 225	68,528.02	+784.52	+1.16%
Shanghai Composite	3,963.904	-3.222	-0.08%
Shenzhen Component	14,868.234	-56.634	-0.38%
Hang Seng	24,695.62	+354.89	+1.46%
ASX 200	8,832.50	+24.00	+0.27%
KOSPI	7,387.19	+530.30	+7.73%
Straits Times	5,551.87	+56.26	+1.02%
NZX 50	13,602.56	-48.66	-0.36%

China data

Release	Actual	Forecast	Previous
Q2 GDP, year-on-year	4.3%	4.5%	5.0%
Q2 GDP, quarter-on-quarter	0.9%	0.9%	1.3%
Industrial production, year-on-year	5.3%	4.6%	4.5%
Retail sales, year-on-year	1.0%	-0.1%	-0.6%

US Futures

Contract	Last	Day Change	Implied Open
Dow futures	52,850.0	+59.00 (+0.11%)	+101.73 (+0.19%)
S&P 500 futures	7,607.75	+16.50 (+0.22%)	+12.16 (+0.16%)
Nasdaq futures	30,007.0	+216.75 (+0.73%)	+225.71 (+0.76%)
Russell 2000 futures	2,984.6	+4.70 (+0.16%)	-6.16 (-0.21%)

US Treasury Yields

Maturity	Yield	Change	Basis Points
6-month	3.939%	+0.003	+0.3 bp
1-year	4.038%	+0.019	+1.9 bp
2-year	4.202%	+0.009	+0.9 bp
3-year	4.251%	+0.007	+0.7 bp
5-year	4.328%	+0.005	+0.5 bp
7-year	4.458%	+0.009	+0.9 bp
10-year	4.598%	+0.013	+1.3 bp
20-year	5.117%	+0.018	+1.8 bp
30-year	5.110%	+0.016	+1.6 bp

Foreign Exchange

Pair	Last	Net	% Change
USD/JPY	162.19	-0.04	-0.0247%
EUR/USD	1.1438	+0.0019	+0.1664%
GBP/USD	1.3401	+0.0012	+0.09%
EUR/GBP	0.8531	+0.0004	+0.05%
USD/CHF	0.8089	UNCH	UNCH
AUD/USD	0.6984	+0.0010	+0.14%
NZD/USD	0.5815	+0.0004	+0.0688%
USD/KRW	1,491.90	+2.84	+0.1907%
USD/CNY	6.7683	-0.0017	-0.0251%
USD/CAD	1.4046	-0.0009	-0.0640%

Commodities

Commodity	Last	Net	% Change
WTI crude	$79.80	+$0.46	+0.58%
Brent crude	$85.44	+$0.71	+0.84%
Natural gas	$2.925	+$0.021	+0.72%
RBOB gasoline	$3.2500	+$0.0227	+0.70%
Heating oil	$4.0519	+$0.0376	+0.94%
Gold	$4,033.47	-$20.00	-0.49%

Economic Calendar — GMT

Time	Event	Forecast	Previous
10:00	Eurozone industrial production (MoM), May	0.3%	0.1%
11:30	BoE MPC member Pill speaks	—	—
13:30	US core PPI (MoM), June	0.3%	0.4%
13:30	US Empire State Manufacturing Index, July	9.30	5.70
13:30	US PPI (MoM), June	0.0%	1.1%
13:45	FOMC member Williams speaks	—	—
14:00	Fed Chair Kevin Warsh testifies before the Senate Banking Committee Added	—	—
15:30	US crude oil inventories	-1.800m	2.998m
15:30	US Cushing crude inventories	—	-0.052m
17:00	Bundesbank President Nagel speaks	—	—
19:00	Federal Reserve Beige Book	—	—

Warsh’s Senate testimony is scheduled for 10:00 a.m. ET, shown here as 14:00 GMT. The UK is currently on BST, one hour ahead of GMT.

Market Commentary

Equities: Asia’s rebound is broad, but the outsized KOSPI move and the previous session’s IBM shock underline how concentrated and unstable the AI trade remains. US futures suggest dip-buying, led by Nasdaq futures, although the Russell’s negative implied open shows the recovery is not entirely uniform.

Rates: Treasury yields are modestly higher across the curve, with the 10-year up 1.3bp to 4.598%. Warsh’s Senate testimony is the key policy event after softer CPI reduced immediate rate-hike expectations; markets will focus on whether he repeats that the inflation fight is not yet complete.

FX and commodities: The dollar is softer against the euro and sterling but remains firm against parts of Asia. Oil continues to carry a geopolitical premium as the Hormuz confrontation persists, while gold is lower despite the conflict, reflecting higher yields and reduced near-term Fed tightening fears.

China: Q2 GDP undershot expectations, but industrial production and retail sales were better than forecast. That mix points to an economy still dependent on production and exports, with domestic demand not yet strong enough to remove pressure for further stimulus.