Morning Market Pack
Top Headlines
- US launches air strikes as Iran targets tankers with cruise missilesUS-Iran hostilities intensified again around the Strait of Hormuz, keeping the energy risk premium elevated.
- Oil surges past $80 on Trump threat to impose 20% Hormuz feeThe proposed cargo charge and renewed blockade threat add a fresh inflation and shipping-cost risk.
- Nvidia halves Asia buyer list in China chip crackdownTighter vetting of Asian AI-chip customers underlines the widening reach of US export controls.
- Fed Chair Warsh faces Congress as markets await policy cluesWarsh’s first semiannual testimony as chair comes immediately after the US CPI release.
- The Federal Reserve’s Semi-Annual Monetary Policy ReportHouse Financial Services Committee hearing begins at 10:00 a.m. ET / 14:00 GMT.
- China exports and imports rise faster than forecast on AI demandJune trade figures were stronger than expected, offering some support to Chinese assets.
- Japan bond sale draws high demand after GPIF remarksThe 20-year JGB auction drew a 4.52 bid-to-cover ratio and the yield fell 11.5 bp to 3.630%.
Asia-Pacific Equities
| INDEX | LEVEL | NET | CHANGE |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nikkei 225 | 66,995.47 | -247.26 | -0.37% |
| Shanghai Composite | 3,887.923 | -25.872 | -0.66% |
| Shenzhen Component | 14,461.201 | -61.653 | -0.43% |
| Hang Seng | 24,099.89 | -113.83 | -0.47% |
| ASX 200 | 8,775.40 | -33.10 | -0.38% |
| Kospi | 6,686.13 | -120.80 | -1.77% |
| Straits Times | 5,464.06 | -6.28 | -0.11% |
| NZX 50 | 13,617.44 | -105.76 | -0.77% |
US Cash Close
| INDEX | CLOSE | NET | CHANGE |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dow Jones | 52,498.64 | -138.37 | -0.26% |
| Nasdaq Composite | 25,873.176 | -408.431 | -1.55% |
| S&P 500 | 7,515.34 | -60.05 | -0.79% |
| Russell 2000 | 2,953.166 | -24.639 | -0.83% |
| VIX | 17.16 | +2.13 | +14.17% |
| TSX Composite | 35,252.72 | -52.59 | -0.15% |
| TSX 60 | 2,084.47 | +1.58 | +0.08% |
| Mexico IPC | 65,973.08 | -523.02 | -0.79% |
| Bovespa | 175,739.08 | -2,127.29 | -1.20% |
US Futures
| CONTRACT | LAST | DAY NET | DAY % | IMPLIED OPEN | IMPLIED % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dow futures | 52,678.0 | -86.00 | -0.16% | -55.64 | -0.11% |
| S&P futures | 7,558.75 | -4.25 | -0.06% | -8.59 | -0.11% |
| Nasdaq futures | 29,489.5 | +13.75 | +0.05% | +25.40 | +0.09% |
| Russell 2000 futures | 2,968.1 | -2.30 | -0.08% | -11.07 | -0.37% |
US Treasury Yields
| MATURITY | YIELD | YIELD CHANGE | BASIS POINTS |
|---|---|---|---|
| US 6-month | 4.005% | +0.003 | +0.3 bp |
| US 1-year | 4.132% | +0.018 | +1.8 bp |
| US 2-year | 4.284% | +0.021 | +2.1 bp |
| US 3-year | 4.319% | +0.020 | +2.0 bp |
| US 5-year | 4.379% | +0.016 | +1.6 bp |
| US 7-year | 4.497% | +0.015 | +1.5 bp |
| US 10-year | 4.622% | +0.012 | +1.2 bp |
| US 20-year | 5.122% | +0.009 | +0.9 bp |
| US 30-year | 5.104% | +0.006 | +0.6 bp |
FX
| PAIR | PRICE | NET | CHANGE |
|---|---|---|---|
| USD/JPY | 162.29 | -0.13 | -0.08% |
| EUR/USD | 1.1392 | +0.0011 | +0.0967% |
| GBP/USD | 1.3357 | +0.0011 | +0.08% |
| EUR/GBP | 0.8524 | -0.0001 | -0.0117% |
| AUD/USD | 0.6933 | +0.0017 | +0.25% |
| NZD/USD | 0.5788 | +0.0040 | +0.6959% |
| USD/CHF | 0.8136 | -0.0008 | -0.0982% |
| USD/CAD | 1.4129 | -0.0025 | -0.1766% |
| USD/CNY | 6.7815 | +0.0020 | +0.03% |
| USD/KRW | 1,487.20 | -10.36 | -0.6918% |
Commodities
| INSTRUMENT | PRICE | NET | CHANGE |
|---|---|---|---|
| WTI crude (Aug) | $79.83 | +$1.69 | +2.16% |
| Brent crude (Sep) | $84.94 | +$1.64 | +1.97% |
| Gold | $4,020.47 | +$18.10 | +0.45% |
| Natural gas (Aug) | $2.887 | -$0.010 | -0.35% |
| RBOB gasoline (Aug) | $3.1923 | +$0.0260 | +0.82% |
| Heating oil (Aug) | $3.8969 | +$0.0733 | +1.92% |
| Uranium (Jul) | $85.45 | Unchanged | 0.00% |
Economic Calendar — GMT
| TIME | CUR. | EVENT | FORECAST | PREVIOUS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08:45 | GBP | BoE Governor Bailey speaks | — | — |
| 12:15 | USD | ADP employment change, weekly | — | 21K |
| 12:30 | USD | Core CPI MoM (Jun) | 0.2% | 0.2% |
| 12:30 | USD | Core CPI YoY (Jun) | 2.8% | 2.9% |
| 12:30 | USD | CPI MoM (Jun) | -0.1% | 0.5% |
| 12:30 | USD | CPI YoY (Jun) | 3.8% | 4.2% |
| 13:00 | EUR | ECB President Lagarde speaks | — | — |
| 14:00 | USD | Fed Chair Kevin Warsh testifies to House Financial Services Committee | — | — |
| 16:40 | USD | Fed Vice Chair for Supervision Barr speaks | — | — |
| 18:55 | USD | FOMC member Bowman speaks | — | — |
| 20:00 | GBP | BoE Governor Bailey speaks | — | — |
| 20:00 | USD | TIC net long-term transactions (May) | 128.5B | 103.1B |
| 20:30 | USD | API weekly crude oil stock | — | -0.399M |
Market Commentary
Risk tone: Asian equities were broadly lower, led by the Kospi’s 1.77% decline. The weakness follows a reassessment of crowded Asian semiconductor exposure, while renewed US-Iran strikes and threats around commercial shipping through Hormuz add another layer of risk aversion.
Oil and inflation: WTI rose 2.16% to $79.83 and Brent gained 1.97% to $84.94. With the Strait of Hormuz dispute unresolved, energy remains the clearest transmission route from geopolitics into inflation expectations. That makes today’s US CPI release especially important.
Rates: The Treasury curve shifted higher, with the 2-year up 2.1 bp to 4.284% and the 10-year up 1.2 bp to 4.622%. The move suggests investors are demanding more inflation and policy risk premium rather than seeking a straightforward geopolitical safe haven.
Japan: The 20-year JGB auction drew strong demand, with a bid-to-cover ratio of 4.52 versus 2.97 previously. The 20-year yield fell 11.5 bp to 3.630% after the sale, supported by speculation that GPIF may reassess domestic asset allocations.
US focus: CPI lands at 12:30 GMT. Consensus expects headline inflation to slow to 3.8% year on year and core CPI to ease to 2.8%. Fed Chair Kevin Warsh then appears before the House Financial Services Committee at 14:00 GMT. His comments on inflation persistence, the balance sheet and the future path of rates may generate a second wave of volatility after the data.
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