Morning Pack — Friday 21 August 2026
06:15 BST snapshot • Calendar times shown in GMT • Compact layout
Top Headlines
US stocks and bonds slide as Treasury buyback relief fades; Dow loses 703 pointsBessent's expanded Treasury buybacks fail to tame long-end yieldsJapan manufacturing PMI jumps to 55.1; orders rise fastest since 2018Asian markets mixed after Wall Street sell-off and renewed Treasury volatilityJapan dumps $123bn of US Treasuries since February as holdings hit lowest since January 2025Broadcom seeks more than $60bn in latest AI debt dealSamsung plans shareholder return package worth as much as $79bnMarket Take
Rates remain the dominant macro driver. The Treasury's larger long-bond buybacks produced only temporary relief: the US 10Y is back around 4.70% and the 30Y above 5.25%. That reversal hit US equities hard on Thursday, although futures are modestly firmer this morning.
Asia is mixed. Hong Kong and Korea are higher while Japan and Australia lag. Japan's flash manufacturing PMI strengthened to 55.1 and core CPI accelerated to 1.8%, keeping the case for further BOJ tightening alive.
Japan remains a key rates story. JGB yields are elevated, while reports of large Japanese selling of US Treasuries add to the focus on global demand for duration.
Today's event risk shifts to activity data. UK retail sales are due first, followed by German, euro-area and UK flash PMIs and then the US PMI suite.
Asia-Pacific Equities
| Index | Last | Net | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nikkei 225 | 66,007.15 | -209.64 | -0.32% |
| Shanghai | 3,903.805 | +0.084 | 0.00% |
| Shenzhen | 14,061.445 | +88.664 | +0.64% |
| Hang Seng | 25,883.24 | +184.75 | +0.72% |
| ASX 200 | 9,051.10 | -32.70 | -0.36% |
| KOSPI | 6,895.25 | +42.67 | +0.62% |
| STI | 5,679.83 | +7.92 | +0.14% |
| NZX 50 | 13,972.66 | +52.84 | +0.38% |
US — Thursday Close
| Index | Close | Net | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dow | 52,759.21 | -703.84 | -1.32% |
| Nasdaq | 26,067.166 | -263.924 | -1.00% |
| S&P 500 | 7,641.16 | -66.82 | -0.87% |
| Russell 2000 | 2,992.434 | -40.508 | -1.34% |
| VIX | 16.01 | +1.12 | +7.52% |
US Futures
| Future | Last | Net | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dow | 52,891.0 | +42.00 | +0.08% |
| S&P | 7,670.25 | +7.75 | +0.10% |
| Nasdaq | 29,369.25 | +68.75 | +0.23% |
| Russell 2K | 3,009.7 | +10.50 | +0.35% |
US Treasuries
| Tenor | Yield | Change |
|---|---|---|
| 2Y | 4.189% | +0.4 bp |
| 5Y | 4.389% | +0.2 bp |
| 7Y | 4.535% | +0.6 bp |
| 10Y | 4.704% | +0.6 bp |
| 20Y | 5.235% | +0.9 bp |
| 30Y | 5.251% | +1.4 bp |
Curve remains steep: 2s10s ≈ +51.5 bp; 2s30s ≈ +106.2 bp.
FX
| Pair | Last | Net | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| EUR/USD | 1.1693 | +0.0015 | +0.13% |
| GBP/USD | 1.3642 | +0.0013 | +0.10% |
| USD/JPY | 158.99 | -0.06 | -0.04% |
| AUD/USD | 0.7140 | +0.0029 | +0.41% |
| NZD/USD | 0.5965 | +0.0022 | +0.37% |
| USD/CAD | 1.3765 | -0.0024 | -0.17% |
DXY is trading around the high-98s, close to a three-month low after the Treasury intervention weakened the dollar.
Commodities
| Contract | Last | Net | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| WTI Oct | $86.19 | -0.64 | -0.74% |
| Brent Oct | $93.24 | -0.54 | -0.58% |
| Nat Gas Sep | $2.744 | +0.011 | +0.40% |
| RBOB Sep | $3.2534 | -0.0095 | -0.29% |
Spot gold is around $4,540/oz, up roughly 0.5% early Friday and on course for a third weekly gain.
Today's Calendar — GMT
| Time | Event | Forecast | Previous |
|---|---|---|---|
| 06:00 | UK Core Retail Sales MoM (Jul) | -0.5% | 1.1% |
| 06:00 | UK Core Retail Sales YoY (Jul) | 3.3% | 5.4% |
| 06:00 | UK Retail Sales YoY (Jul) | 2.2% | 4.2% |
| 06:00 | UK Retail Sales MoM (Jul) | -0.4% | 1.0% |
| 07:30 | Germany Manufacturing PMI Flash (Aug) | 52.1 | 52.2 |
| 07:30 | Germany Services PMI Flash (Aug) | 50.1 | 49.8 |
| 08:00 | Eurozone Manufacturing PMI Flash (Aug) | 51.8 | 51.9 |
| 08:00 | Eurozone Composite PMI Flash (Aug) | 51.7 | 52.0 |
| 08:00 | Eurozone Services PMI Flash (Aug) | 51.5 | 51.7 |
| 08:30 | UK Composite PMI Flash (Aug) | 51.6 | 52.2 |
| 08:30 | UK Manufacturing PMI Flash (Aug) | 51.6 | 51.9 |
| 08:30 | UK Services PMI Flash (Aug) | 51.8 | 52.2 |
| 13:45 | US Manufacturing PMI Flash (Aug) | 54.0 | 53.9 |
| 13:45 | US Composite PMI Flash (Aug) | — | 54.5 |
| 13:45 | US Services PMI Flash (Aug) | 53.9 | 54.6 |
Morning Commentary
Thursday's attempt to stabilise the Treasury market has become today's central story. Long yields initially fell after Treasury doubled planned buybacks, but the move reversed sharply: the 10Y is back at 4.704% and the 30Y at 5.251%. The equity response was correspondingly poor, with the Dow losing 703.84 points and the Russell 2000 down 1.34%. The modest green in US futures this morning therefore looks more like consolidation than a decisive change in tone.
Japan provided the main Asian macro surprise. Manufacturing PMI accelerated to 55.1 from 54.5, services rose to 52.3 and the composite reached 53.4. Core CPI also accelerated to 1.8% YoY. The data strengthen the argument for another BOJ hike even as the Nikkei trades lower, while reports of heavy Japanese selling of US Treasuries keep the cross-market rates story firmly in focus.
Today's focus now turns to UK retail sales at 06:00 GMT, followed by the German, euro-area and UK flash PMIs and the US PMI suite at 13:45 GMT. With yields still elevated, any upside surprise in activity data could quickly feed back into the rates market.
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