Morning Pack — Monday 6 July 2026
Note: US markets were closed last Friday for Independence Day, so some prior close comparisons reflect the holiday-shortened backdrop.
Market tone: Asia is mixed to softer as the tech recovery stalls, oil slips after OPEC+ output headlines, and the dollar firms. Nasdaq futures are still higher, helped by AI/tech resilience, but regional equity tone is uneven and Korea is under pressure.
Asia-Pacific
| Index | Price | Net | % |
|---|
| Nikkei 225 | 69,303.56 | -440.51 | -0.63% |
| Shanghai | 4,046.705 | +3.062 | +0.08% |
| Shenzhen Comp | 15,541.619 | -55.893 | -0.36% |
| Hang Seng | 23,542.97 | +192.94 | +0.83% |
| ASX 200 | 8,829.70 | -14.70 | -0.17% |
| KOSPI | 7,971.13 | -117.21 | -1.45% |
| Straits Times | 5,238.89 | -5.40 | -0.10% |
| NZX 50 | 13,708.28 | +89.86 | +0.66% |
Headlines
US Futures
| Market | Price | Net | % | Implied Open |
|---|
| Dow futures | 53,173.0 | -10.00 | -0.02% | +27.93 / +0.05% |
| S&P futures | 7,549.5 | +21.25 | +0.28% | +14.26 / +0.19% |
| Nasdaq futures | 29,824.25 | +268.25 | +0.91% | +280.04 / +0.95% |
| Russell 2000 futures | 3,014.0 | -0.20 | -0.01% | -10.11 / -0.33% |
Bonds
| Bond | Yield | Move |
|---|
| US 2Y | 4.123% | -0.8 bps |
| US 5Y | 4.209% | -1.2 bps |
| US 7Y | 4.331% | -1.3 bps |
| US 10Y | 4.465% | -1.4 bps |
| US 20Y | 4.973% | -1.0 bps |
| US 30Y | 4.972% | -0.9 bps |
FX
| Pair | Price | Net | % |
|---|
| USD/JPY | 161.91 | +0.54 | +0.33% |
| EUR/USD | 1.1431 | -0.0004 | -0.035% |
| GBP/USD | 1.3341 | -0.0010 | -0.0749% |
| EUR/GBP | 0.8566 | +0.0003 | +0.04% |
| USD/CNY | 6.7879 | +0.0082 | +0.12% |
| USD/CAD | 1.4206 | +0.0008 | +0.06% |
Commodities
| Commodity | Price | Net | % |
|---|
| WTI crude | 68.61 | -0.08 | -0.12% |
| Brent crude | 71.87 | -0.25 | -0.35% |
| Natural gas | 3.175 | -0.021 | -0.66% |
| RBOB gasoline | 2.9506 | +0.0333 | +1.14% |
| Heating oil | 3.2692 | +0.0870 | +2.73% |
| Gold | 4,160.667 | +37.92 | +0.92% |
Economic Calendar — GMT
| Time | Currency | Event | Forecast | Previous |
|---|
| 06:00 | EUR | German Factory Orders MoM | 1.1% | -3.8% |
| 08:30 | GBP | S&P Global Construction PMI | 40.1 | 38.2 |
| 13:45 | USD | S&P Global Composite PMI | 52.2 | 52.2 |
| 13:45 | USD | S&P Global Services PMI | 51.3 | 51.3 |
| 14:00 | USD | ISM Non-Manufacturing Employment | - | 47.9 |
| 14:00 | USD | ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI | 54.2 | 54.5 |
| 14:00 | USD | ISM Non-Manufacturing Prices | - | 71.3 |
| 15:00 | USD | Fed Waller Speaks | - | - |
| 15:00 | EUR | ECB’s Schnabel Speaks | - | - |
| 16:00 | EUR | ECB President Lagarde Speaks | - | - |
| 16:45 | GBP | BoE MPC Member Mann Speaks | - | - |
| 18:30 | EUR | ECB’s Lane Speaks | - | - |
| 19:30 | GBP | CFTC GBP speculative net positions | - | -105.7K |
| 19:30 | USD | CFTC crude oil speculative net positions | - | 114.6K |
Commentary: The market has opened the week with a more cautious feel. Asia is no longer a clean risk-on story, with Japan, Korea and Australia softer while Hong Kong holds up. The dollar is firmer, especially against the yen, after Goldman reportedly pushed its USD/JPY forecast to 165. Oil is lower after OPEC+ supply headlines, while gold remains supported as rate-hike expectations stay subdued. US futures are mixed under the surface: Nasdaq strength points to continued AI support, but small caps and cyclicals look less convincing.
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