Wednesday, 1 July 2026

Overnight Headlines 1st July 2026

Morning Pack — Wednesday 1 July 2026

Snapshot around 05:50 GMT. Moves are net and percentage where available.

Market commentary

Asia is broadly firmer, led by Japan and mainland China, while Australia and Korea lag. Hong Kong is closed. The main macro story is still the yen: USD/JPY is pushing above 162, keeping intervention risk alive and helping frame the rally in Japanese equities. US futures are softer after a strong quarter-end run, with focus on Warsh, ADP, ISM and eurozone CPI. Oil is lower despite continuing Hormuz headlines, while gold is also weaker, suggesting markets are leaning more toward contained geopolitical risk and a firmer dollar/rates backdrop than outright safe-haven stress.

Asia-Pacific markets

IndexPriceNet%
Nikkei 22570,593.38+531.06+0.76%
Shanghai Composite4,138.649+44.252+1.08%
Shenzhen Component16,271.322+65.766+0.41%
Hang Seng22,881.02-145.66Closed
ASX 2008,715.00-63.70-0.73%
KOSPI8,362.47-114.01-1.35%
Straits Times5,176.22+5.57+0.11%
NZX 5013,603.76-17.90-0.13%

Headlines

  1. Iran selling oil at 20% premium as end of U.S. blockade sees 40 million barrels exported in two weeks — CNBC
  2. White House lifts ban on Anthropic models — FT
  3. US lifts export restrictions on Anthropic’s Fable 5 AI model — Bloomberg
  4. Yen slides to new 40-year low while Dow futures ease after strongest first half in five years — CNBC
  5. Trump briefed on all-out war options in Iran but opts to stick with talks — WSJ
  6. Nike forecasts surprise fall in full-year revenue; shares tumble — Reuters
  7. BoE’s Bailey sees no rush to act on interest rates — Reuters
  8. EU slaps €3 fee on e-commerce parcels in blow to Shein, Temu and AliExpress — Reuters
  9. Apple’s Cook holds “constructive” talks with EU tech chief over Siri AI — FT
  10. Trump reports at least $1.4bn in 2025 crypto earnings — Bloomberg

US futures & cash close

MarketLast / CloseNet%
Dow futures—-18.50-0.25%
S&P 500 futures—-18.50-0.25%
Nasdaq futures—-72.75-0.24%
Dow Jones cash52,182.74+306.63+0.59%
Nasdaq Composite cash25,820.144+522.526+2.07%
S&P 500 cash7,440.43+86.41+1.18%
Russell 2000 cash3,010.417+0.332+0.01%
VIX17.65-0.76-4.13%

Rates

BondYieldChangeChange in bps
US 6M3.970%+0.005+0.5 bps
US 1Y3.964%UNCH0.0 bps
US 2Y4.100%-0.009-0.9 bps
US 3Y4.100%-0.009-0.9 bps
US 5Y4.135%-0.009-0.9 bps
US 7Y4.241%-0.008-0.8 bps
US 10Y4.369%-0.005-0.5 bps
US 20Y4.859%-0.005-0.5 bps
US 30Y4.858%-0.002-0.2 bps

JGB note: Japan 40Y yield fell 2 bps to 3.785%; 40-year yen weakness remains the key FX/rates signal.

FX

PairPriceNet%
USD/JPY162.19+0.25+0.15%
AUD/USD0.6871-0.0015-0.2178%
NZD/USD0.5646-0.0003-0.0531%
EUR/USD1.1391-0.0029-0.2539%
EUR/GBP0.8609-0.0004-0.0464%
GBP/USD1.3229-0.0027-0.2037%
USD/CHF0.8094+0.0019+0.2353%
USD/CAD1.4230+0.0023+0.16%
USD/MXN17.4822+0.0192+0.11%

Commodities

CommodityPriceNet%
WTI crude70.16-0.25-0.36%
Brent crude73.43-0.15-0.20%
Natural gas3.171-0.010-0.31%
RBOB gasoline3.0614UNCHUNCH
Heating oil3.3025-0.0292-0.88%
Uranium85.10UNCHUNCH
Gold3,980.02-27.86-0.70%

Calendar — GMT

TimeCurrencyEventForecastPrevious
06:00GBPNationwide HPI YoY (Jun)2.4%1.7%
06:00GBPNationwide HPI MoM (Jun)0.0%-0.6%
07:55EURHCOB Germany Manufacturing PMI (Jun)50.050.2
08:00EURHCOB Eurozone Manufacturing PMI (Jun)51.351.0
08:30GBPS&P Global Manufacturing PMI (Jun)53.153.9
09:00EURCore CPI YoY (Jun) prelim2.5%2.6%
09:00EURCPI YoY (Jun) prelim3.0%3.2%
10:15EURECB’s Lane speaks——
12:15USDADP Nonfarm Employment Change (Jun)118K122K
13:00GBPBoE Gov Bailey speaks——
13:00USDFed Governor Warsh speaks——
13:45USDS&P Global Manufacturing PMI (Jun)55.755.4
14:00USDConstruction Spending MoM (May)0.1%0.4%
14:00USDISM Manufacturing Employment (Jun)—48.0
14:00USDISM Manufacturing PMI (Jun)53.854.0
14:00USDISM Manufacturing Prices (Jun)77.782.7
14:30USDCrude Oil Inventories-4.800M-6.088M
14:30USDCushing Crude Oil Inventories—-1.077M
15:30USDAtlanta Fed GDPNow (Q2) prelim2.5%2.5%

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