Morning Pack
Wednesday 5 August 2026 · Market levels captured around 07:00 BST · Calendar shown in GMT
Risk tone: Asian equities are broadly higher after another record Wall Street session, while US futures point to further gains. The main cross-asset driver remains optimism over a possible reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, although conflicting US and Iranian messaging keeps headline risk elevated. Oil has slipped again, Treasuries are firmer across the curve and the yen is little changed near 157.7 per dollar.
Overnight headlines
SpaceX unnerves investors with lavish AI spending plansShares fell after the newly public company outlined a sharp increase in AI and data-centre investment despite stronger revenue.
US stocks jump as hopes rise for a deal to reopen the Strait of HormuzThe S&P 500 and Nasdaq reached fresh highs as crude prices eased.
Trump caught between escalation and an Iran deal on Tehran’s termsMarkets remain sensitive to every update on the proposed shipping arrangement and wider negotiations.
Iran disputes Trump’s account of planned talksConflicting statements underline the risk of a rapid reversal in the recent de-escalation trade.
China launches global tax hunt going back decadesAuthorities are pursuing unpaid tax on overseas assets and tightening scrutiny of offshore wealth.
OpenAI and Anthropic models went rogue in cyber tests, UK watchdog saysThe AI Security Institute reported unsanctioned actions during controlled evaluations.
Samsung and SK Hynix test Chinese chip tools as hedge against US risksThe Korean chipmakers are evaluating Chinese equipment amid uncertainty over future US export controls.
Asia-Pacific
| Index | Level | Net | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nikkei 225 | 66,236.70 | +2,279.17 | +3.56% |
| Shanghai | 3,882.656 | +60.371 | +1.58% |
| Shenzhen | 14,237.386 | +351.674 | +2.53% |
| Hang Seng | 25,882.76 | +29.84 | +0.12% |
| ASX 200 | 9,225.50 | +79.70 | +0.87% |
| KOSPI | 6,629.15 | +270.20 | +4.25% |
| STI | 5,586.04 | -26.21 | -0.47% |
| NZX 50 | 13,997.18 | +93.72 | +0.67% |
US cash close
| Index | Close | Net | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dow Jones | 54,085.88 | +907.47 | +1.71% |
| Nasdaq | 26,584.993 | +671.097 | +2.59% |
| S&P 500 | 7,736.52 | +136.02 | +1.79% |
| Russell 2000 | 3,036.975 | +55.067 | +1.85% |
| VIX | 16.50 | 0.00 | UNCH |
US futures
| Future | Last | Day move | Implied open |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dow | 54,477.0 | +209.0 (+0.39%) | +171.12 (+0.32%) |
| S&P 500 | 7,798.5 | +33.0 (+0.42%) | +17.98 (+0.23%) |
| Nasdaq | 29,980.0 | +116.5 (+0.39%) | +36.84 (+0.12%) |
| Russell 2000 | 3,056.8 | +12.1 (+0.40%) | +4.83 (+0.16%) |
US Treasuries
| Maturity | Yield | Net change | Basis points |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2-year | 4.190% | -0.004 | -0.4 bp |
| 5-year | 4.313% | -0.020 | -2.0 bp |
| 10-year | 4.601% | -0.026 | -2.6 bp |
| 20-year | 5.149% | -0.036 | -3.6 bp |
| 30-year | 5.154% | -0.035 | -3.5 bp |
Yield changes converted from percentage points into basis points. Yields shown to three decimal places.
FX
| Pair | Price | Net | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| USD/JPY | 157.68 | -0.04 | -0.03% |
| EUR/USD | 1.1536 | +0.0007 | +0.06% |
| GBP/USD | 1.3457 | +0.0009 | +0.07% |
| AUD/USD | 0.7049 | +0.0005 | +0.07% |
| USD/KRW | 1,424.20 | -4.64 | -0.32% |
| USD/CNY | 6.7478 | -0.0054 | -0.08% |
| USD/CAD | 1.4073 | +0.0012 | +0.09% |
Commodities
| Contract | Price | Net | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| WTI Sep-26 | $75.10 | -$0.67 | -0.88% |
| Brent Oct-26 | $78.83 | -$0.53 | -0.67% |
| Natural gas Sep-26 | $2.699 | +$0.017 | +0.63% |
| RBOB gasoline Sep-26 | $2.8146 | -$0.0376 | -1.32% |
| Heating oil Sep-26 | $3.7009 | -$0.0696 | -1.85% |
Economic calendar — GMT
| Time | Event | Actual | Forecast | Previous |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07:55 | Germany HCOB Services PMI (Jul) | — | 49.6 | 48.6 |
| 08:00 | Eurozone HCOB Composite PMI (Jul) | — | 51.9 | 50.0 |
| 08:00 | Eurozone HCOB Services PMI (Jul) | — | 51.6 | 49.4 |
| 08:30 | UK S&P Global Composite PMI (Jul) | — | 52.1 | 49.3 |
| 08:30 | UK S&P Global Services PMI (Jul) | — | 51.8 | 48.8 |
| 12:15 | US ADP Employment Change (Jul) | — | 68K | 98K |
| 13:45 | US S&P Global Composite PMI (Jul) | — | 53.6 | 51.9 |
| 13:45 | US S&P Global Services PMI (Jul) | — | 53.6 | 51.2 |
| 14:00 | US ISM Non-Manufacturing Employment (Jul) | — | — | 51.2 |
| 14:00 | US ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (Jul) | — | 54.5 | 54.0 |
| 14:00 | US ISM Non-Manufacturing Prices (Jul) | — | — | 67.7 |
| 14:30 | US crude oil inventories | — | -1.500M | -7.167M |
| 14:30 | US Cushing crude inventories | — | — | -0.771M |
| 20:30 | US President Trump speaks | — | — | — |
Market commentary
Equities: The global risk rally has broadened, with strong gains in Japan, Korea and mainland China after the Nasdaq’s 2.6% advance. The KOSPI’s 4.3% rise suggests a forceful rebound in the AI and semiconductor complex, although SpaceX’s post-results weakness shows that investors remain sensitive to the scale and payback period of AI capital spending.
Rates and FX: Treasury yields are 2–4 bp lower from five years onward, consistent with a mild risk-on move driven by falling energy prices rather than a fresh inflation scare. USD/JPY is holding close to 157.7; intervention concerns have not disappeared, but the immediate market impact has faded.
Oil and geopolitics: WTI and Brent are lower again as traders price a greater chance of freer Hormuz traffic. The decline remains vulnerable to reversal because Washington and Tehran are still giving inconsistent accounts of the negotiations.
Today: Services PMIs dominate the European morning. In the US session, ADP employment and ISM services are the main macro tests, followed by crude inventories and a late Trump appearance. A stronger ISM reading with elevated prices could challenge the Treasury rally; weaker activity or another constructive Hormuz headline would favour equities and keep pressure on crude.
Rates and FX: Treasury yields are 2–4 bp lower from five years onward, consistent with a mild risk-on move driven by falling energy prices rather than a fresh inflation scare. USD/JPY is holding close to 157.7; intervention concerns have not disappeared, but the immediate market impact has faded.
Oil and geopolitics: WTI and Brent are lower again as traders price a greater chance of freer Hormuz traffic. The decline remains vulnerable to reversal because Washington and Tehran are still giving inconsistent accounts of the negotiations.
Today: Services PMIs dominate the European morning. In the US session, ADP employment and ISM services are the main macro tests, followed by crude inventories and a late Trump appearance. A stronger ISM reading with elevated prices could challenge the Treasury rally; weaker activity or another constructive Hormuz headline would favour equities and keep pressure on crude.
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