Overnight Headlines 18th August 2026

Morning Pack — Tuesday 18 August 2026

Market levels from supplied screenshots around 05:40–05:54 BST. Calendar times shown in GMT.

Overnight headlines

30-year Treasury yield tops 5.3%, highest since 2007 [WSJ]

Japan’s 10-year government bond yield reaches a three-decade peak  [Reuters]

Trump’s renewed threat against Oman raises the stakes in stalled Iran diplomacy  [WSJ]

Oil rises as U.S.–Iran talks fail to reopen the Strait of Hormuz  [WSJ]

ECB economists warn a correction in U.S. technology stocks is likely  [FT]

Antitrust pressure starts to bite into Apple’s $100bn services business  [FT]

Foreign holdings of U.S. Treasuries fall in June, led by Japan, UK and China  [Reuters]

Carney makes last-ditch push to avoid latest U.S. tariffs  [FT]

Asia

Index	Last	Net	%
Nikkei 225	67,816.16	-1,404.09	-2.03%
Shanghai	3,966.992	-15.662	-0.39%
Shenzhen	14,543.448	-160.827	-1.09%
Hang Seng	25,287.25	-165.98	-0.65%
ASX 200	9,078.30	+5.10	+0.06%
KOSPI	6,945.17	-32.77	-0.47%
STI	5,698.98	-69.48	-1.20%
NZX 50	13,808.28	+86.30	+0.63%

Wall Street close

Index	Close	Net	%
Dow	53,459.78	-272.63	-0.51%
Nasdaq	26,644.911	-84.253	-0.32%
S&P 500	7,745.06	-40.70	-0.52%
Russell 2000	3,057.54	-10.876	-0.35%
VIX	15.19	+0.94	+6.60%

U.S. futures

Contract	Last	Net	%	Implied open
Dow fut.	53,464.0	-80.00	-0.15%	-65.78 (-0.12%)
S&P fut.	7,741.5	-27.25	-0.35%	-24.56 (-0.32%)
Nasdaq fut.	29,901.25	-194.75	-0.65%	-154.13 (-0.51%)
Russell fut.	3,058.1	-6.80	-0.22%	-8.44 (-0.28%)

U.S. Treasuries

Yield changes converted to basis points; yields shown to three decimal places.

Tenor	Yield	Change
US 2Y	4.192%	+1.0 bp
US 3Y	4.268%	+1.1 bp
US 5Y	4.390%	+1.4 bp
US 7Y	4.552%	+1.5 bp
US 10Y	4.738%	+1.4 bp
US 20Y	5.319%	+1.5 bp
US 30Y	5.322%	+1.2 bp

FX

Pair	Last	Net	%
EUR/USD	1.1574	-0.0005	-0.0432%
GBP/USD	1.3536	-0.0007	-0.0517%
USD/JPY	159.67	+0.24	+0.15%
USD/CHF	0.8114	+0.0009	+0.111%
USD/CAD	1.3872	-0.0001	-0.0072%
USD/CNY	6.7436	+0.0037	+0.05%

Commodities

Contract	Last	Net	%
WTI Sep-26	$85.18	+$0.68	+0.80%
Brent Oct-26	$91.44	+$0.57	+0.63%
Gold	$4,396.83	+$20.67	+0.47%
Nat Gas Sep-26	$2.701	+$0.011	+0.41%

Today’s calendar — GMT

GMT	Cur.	Event	Forecast	Previous
06:00	GBP	Average Earnings Index +Bonus (Jun)	4.0%	4.3%
06:00	GBP	Claimant Count Change (Jul)	11.2K	6.7K
06:00	GBP	Employment Change 3M/3M (Jun)	—	147K
06:00	GBP	Unemployment Rate (Jun)	4.8%	4.9%
08:30	GBP	Labour Productivity (Q1)	-0.5%	-0.5%
09:00	EUR	German ZEW Current Conditions (Aug)	-68.8	-77.6
09:00	EUR	German ZEW Economic Sentiment (Aug)	30.0	26.3
09:00	EUR	ZEW Economic Sentiment (Aug)	25.4	23.4
11:45	EUR	ECB’s Lane speaks	—	—
12:30	USD	Building Permits (Jul) P	1.370M	1.374M
12:30	USD	Export Price Index MoM (Jul)	0.2%	-0.6%
12:30	USD	Housing Starts (Jul)	1.350M	1.427M
12:30	USD	Housing Starts MoM (Jul)	—	19.0%
12:30	USD	Import Price Index MoM (Jul)	0.1%	0.3%
13:15	USD	Industrial Production MoM (Jul)	0.3%	0.1%
13:15	USD	Industrial Production YoY (Jul)	—	1.14%
14:00	USD	Pending Home Sales MoM (Jul)	0.1%	-5.4%
14:45	USD	Atlanta Fed GDPNow (Q3) P	4.3%	4.3%
20:30	USD	API Weekly Crude Oil Stock	—	9.072M

Market commentary

Rates are the dominant macro signal. The U.S. long end remains under pressure, with the 30-year yield around 5.322% after touching levels not seen since 2007. The move is being reinforced by higher energy prices and uncertainty over the inflation implications of the Middle East conflict. Japan is adding to the global duration pressure: the 10-year JGB yield has reached a three-decade high as markets raise the probability of another BOJ hike.

Asia is risk-off overall. Japan is the standout loser, with the Nikkei down just over 2%, while mainland China, Hong Kong, Korea and Singapore are also lower. Australia and New Zealand are the exceptions. The combination of higher global yields and renewed geopolitical risk is weighing on equities.

U.S. futures point to another softer open, led by technology.Nasdaq futures are down around 0.65% on the session and imply an opening fall of roughly 0.51%; S&P futures imply about -0.32%. The weaker tone follows Monday’s decline and comes as the market digests both higher bond yields and fresh warnings over rich U.S. technology valuations.

Oil remains a geopolitical pressure point. Brent is above $91 and WTI near $85 as efforts to reopen normal traffic through the Strait of Hormuz remain uncertain. That keeps an inflation-risk premium in both crude and the long end of global bond markets.

Today’s data focus starts with the UK labour-market release at 06:00 GMT (07:00 BST), followed by German and euro-area ZEW surveys. In the U.S., housing starts, permits and import/export prices arrive at 12:30 GMT, with industrial production at 13:15 GMT and pending home sales at 14:00 GMT.