Morning Pack — Thursday 13 August 2026
Market snapshot from supplied screens, c. 05:40–05:52 BST. Economic calendar shown in GMT.
Overnight Headlines
- Anthropic investors bet on a $2tn valuation in a record IPO — the FT says backers are modelling an October flotation at $2tn or more as Claude revenue accelerates sharply.
- SpaceX short sellers are running out of bullets as the stock rebounds sharply from its low — short interest has fallen materially as shares recover.
- Cerebras swings to a Q2 loss and lifts its full-year outlook — shares fell heavily after hours as margin and scaling concerns outweighed stronger guidance.
- Ten-year Treasury auction attracts modestly above-average demand — the $42bn sale cleared at 4.683%, versus 4.580% previously, with a 2.53 bid-to-cover.
- Japan PPI rises 7.2% y/y in July, below the 7.4% estimate — monthly prices rose only 0.1% versus 0.6% expected, but wholesale inflation remains elevated.
- Hormuz remains the key geopolitical risk for energy markets — shipping traffic remains severely disrupted despite U.S. claims of control over the strait.
Asia-Pacific Markets
| Index | Last | Net | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nikkei 225 | 68,732.04 | +1,207.98 | +1.79% |
| Shanghai | 3,963.152 | +16.477 | +0.42% |
| Shenzhen | 14,519.967 | +105.541 | +0.73% |
| Hang Seng | 25,457.33 | +17.16 | +0.07% |
| ASX 200 | 9,175.40 | -34.00 | -0.37% |
| KOSPI | 6,834.98 | +255.94 | +3.89% |
| STI | 5,694.73 | -26.02 | -0.45% |
| NZX 50 | 13,836.22 | +98.56 | +0.72% |
Asia read: Japan and South Korea are the clear outperformers, with the KOSPI up almost 4% and the Nikkei up nearly 2%. China is firmer but less dramatic, while Australia and Singapore lag.
U.S. Futures
| Contract | Last | Day change | Implied open |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dow | 53,852.0 | -19.0 (-0.04%) | -23.27 (-0.04%) |
| S&P 500 | 7,774.75 | +4.25 (+0.05%) | -0.75 (-0.01%) |
| Nasdaq | 29,879.25 | +26.00 (+0.09%) | +41.65 (+0.14%) |
| Russell 2000 | 3,056.1 | +3.30 (+0.11%) | -0.38 (-0.01%) |
U.S. Cash Close
| Index | Close | Net | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dow | 53,770.27 | -21.58 | -0.04% |
| Nasdaq | 26,588.488 | +143.042 | +0.54% |
| S&P 500 | 7,748.50 | +20.30 | +0.26% |
| Russell 2000 | 3,045.483 | +18.368 | +0.61% |
| VIX | 14.55 | -0.73 | -4.78% |
U.S. Treasuries
| Maturity | Yield | Net change | bps |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2-Year | 4.186% | -0.013 | -1.3 |
| 5-Year | 4.362% | -0.013 | -1.3 |
| 10-Year | 4.682% | -0.010 | -1.0 |
| 30-Year | 5.242% | -0.005 | -0.5 |
The curve is modestly lower in yield after yesterday's 10-year auction cleared at 4.683%, the highest auction yield since 2007. Today's 30-year auction at 17:00 GMT is the next duration test.
Commodities
| Asset | Price | Net | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| WTI Sep-26 | $82.93 | -0.34 | -0.41% |
| Brent Oct-26 | $88.76 | -0.22 | -0.25% |
| Natural Gas Sep-26 | $2.783 | -0.021 | -0.75% |
FX
| Pair | Price | Net | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| USD/JPY | 159.30 | -0.11 | -0.069% |
| EUR/USD | 1.1523 | -0.0001 | -0.0087% |
| GBP/USD | 1.3491 | -0.0001 | -0.0074% |
| USD/CAD | 1.3946 | +0.0007 | +0.05% |
Economic Calendar — GMT
| Time | Event | Forecast | Previous |
|---|---|---|---|
| 06:00 | UK Business Investment QoQ (Q2) | -0.3% | 0.9% |
| 06:00 | UK GDP QoQ (Q2) | 0.4% | 0.6% |
| 06:00 | UK GDP YoY (Q2) | 1.1% | 0.9% |
| 06:00 | UK GDP MoM (Jun) | 0.0% | 0.1% |
| 06:00 | UK Industrial Production MoM (Jun) | 0.1% | -0.5% |
| 06:00 | UK Manufacturing Production MoM (Jun) | -0.1% | 0.1% |
| 06:00 | UK Monthly GDP 3M/3M (Jun) | 0.4% | 0.7% |
| 06:00 | UK Trade Balance (Jun) | -20.60B | -18.66B |
| 06:00 | UK Trade Balance Non-EU (Jun) | — | -7.14B |
| 09:00 | Eurozone Industrial Production MoM (Jun) | -0.1% | -0.2% |
| 11:00 | NIESR Monthly GDP Tracker (Jul) | — | 0.4% |
| 12:30 | US Continuing Jobless Claims | 1,800K | 1,801K |
| 12:30 | US Core PPI MoM (Jul) | 0.3% | 0.2% |
| 12:30 | US Initial Jobless Claims | 202K | 199K |
| 12:30 | US PPI MoM (Jul) | 0.2% | -0.3% |
| 17:00 | US 30-Year Bond Auction | — | 5.058% |
| 20:30 | Fed Balance Sheet | — | 6,749B |
Morning Commentary
Risk tone: Asia is broadly constructive, led by an outsized Korean rally and another strong Nikkei session. U.S. futures are close to flat, suggesting investors are unwilling to chase before today's PPI.
Rates: Treasury yields are a touch lower across the curve after Wednesday's 10-year supply was absorbed reasonably well, despite the highest auction yield since 2007. The 30-year sale later today is the next duration test.
FX: USD/JPY remains the standout macro pressure point around 159–160. Japan's PPI was softer than forecast month-on-month, but annual producer inflation at 7.2% keeps the BOJ debate active.
Energy: WTI and Brent are softer this morning, but the Strait of Hormuz remains capable of overwhelming normal demand signals quickly. That leaves oil as the main geopolitical transmission channel into inflation expectations.
Today's focus: UK GDP and production data at 06:00 GMT, then U.S. PPI and claims at 12:30 GMT. A softer PPI would reinforce yesterday's post-CPI moderation in Fed tightening expectations; an upside surprise could reverse the Treasury rally quickly.
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