Morning Pack
Monday 27 July 2026 · Market levels captured around 06:17–06:28 BST
Market focus: a pause in US-Iran strikes has triggered a sharp reversal in oil, a rally in global equities and a drop in Treasury yields. Investors are shifting back toward the Fed, major technology spending and this week’s earnings calendar.
Asia-Pacific
Linkable Headlines
- US pauses Iran strikes as Oman pursues a Strait of Hormuz transit deal
- Nvidia in talks to guarantee $250bn financing for an OpenAI data centre
- China memory-chip maker CXMT surges more than 470% in its Shanghai debut
- Oil falls more than 4% as Iran and the US pause strikes over the Strait of Hormuz
- Trump pauses a major Iran campaign as officials weigh dwindling air-defence stocks
- AI companies spend record sums lobbying in Washington
- Bank of England expected to hold rates despite the recent jump in oil
- France questions UK participation in the EU’s €5bn technology start-up fund
Asia Commentary
Asian markets are broadly higher as the geopolitical risk premium eases. China is outperforming after CXMT’s blockbuster debut, while Australia and New Zealand are also firm. The regional move is being helped by sharply lower oil and lower US yields. Chinese industrial profits rose 15.1% year-on-year in June, although that was below the previous 21.1% pace. Singapore also tightened monetary policy further in response to price pressures.
Overnight Data
China industrial profits: +15.1% y/y in June versus +21.1% previously; year-to-date profits +18.7% versus +18.8%.
Japan indicators: leading index 116.5 versus 116.8 previously; coincident index 117.9 versus 118.5.
Japan services PPI: +3.2% y/y versus 3.4% forecast and 3.3% previously.
US Cash Close
US Futures
US Treasuries
Rates watch: the geopolitical unwind has produced a broad Treasury rally. The 10-year has fallen to 4.632% and the 30-year to 5.119%, easing from last week’s multi-year highs. The move reduces immediate pressure on equities, although long-end yields remain historically elevated.
FX
Commodities
Economic Calendar — GMT
US Commentary
US futures are pointing to a strong rebound, led by Nasdaq contracts, as the oil shock unwinds and Treasury yields fall. The previous cash session was mixed, with the Dow higher but technology still under pressure. The return of risk appetite is therefore more a macro relief rally than a clean continuation of last week’s equity trend.
Rates & FX
The bond rally is broad, with yields 4–5 basis points lower across much of the curve. The dollar is also softer against the euro, sterling and the Australian dollar. USD/JPY remains above 163, but the yen is modestly firmer as US yields retreat.
Commodities & Today’s Focus
Oil is the key mover, with WTI down just over 5% and Brent down nearly 5% after the US and Iran paused military action. The decline reduces near-term inflation pressure and has eased expectations of another Fed increase. Attention now turns to German Ifo data, US durable goods, GDPNow and Treasury auctions, while major technology spending and AI-financing headlines remain important for equity sentiment.
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