Overnight Headlines 23rd July 2026

 

Morning Pack

Thursday 23 July 2026 · Data captured around 05:55 BST

Main event: ECB rate decision at 12:15 GMT, followed by the press conference at 12:45 GMT. Consensus is for the deposit rate to remain at 2.25% and the main refinancing rate at 2.40%.

Asia

Index	Level	Net	%
Nikkei 225	66,566.84	+451.24	+0.68%
Shanghai	3,859.688	-7.346	-0.19%
Shenzhen	14,035.011	-26.424	-0.19%
Hang Seng	25,227.06	+334.40	+1.34%
ASX 200	8,873.50	+50.50	+0.57%
KOSPI	7,038.49	+240.73	+3.54%
Straits Times	5,560.31	-35.11	-0.63%
NZX 50	13,766.62	+3.44	+0.03%

Linkable Headlines

• Alphabet raises 2026 capex guidance to $195bn–$205bn as AI infrastructure spending surges
• Tesla profits plunge as discounting and rising investment squeeze margins
• Houthis claim attacks on Saudi tankers as regional shipping risks widen
• ECB expected to hold rates despite renewed energy-price pressure
• Trump’s Boeing agreement with Beijing reportedly hits turbulence
• Oil climbs as escalating conflict raises supply-disruption concerns
• Asian shares rise on chip strength while Brent approaches $96

Overnight Data

Australia: employment +76.3K versus +15.0K forecast and +40.3K previous. Unemployment held at 4.4%. Full-time jobs rose 29.3K and part-time jobs 47.0K.

South Korea: Q2 GDP rose 0.6% q/q versus 0.4% forecast and 1.7% previous; annual growth was 3.7% versus 3.5% forecast and 3.8% previous.

US Futures

Contract	Last	Net	%	Implied open
Dow	52,393.0	-56.00	-0.11%	-60.58 (-0.12%)
S&P 500	7,530.5	-9.75	-0.13%	-19.46 (-0.26%)
Nasdaq	29,145.25	-36.00	-0.12%	-87.85 (-0.30%)
Russell 2000	2,969.8	0.00	0.00%	-12.14 (-0.41%)

US Cash Close

Index	Close	Net	%
Dow	52,218.58	-6.06	-0.01%
Nasdaq	25,690.903	-146.304	-0.57%
S&P 500	7,498.96	-10.24	-0.14%
Russell 2000	2,959.938	-27.457	-0.92%
VIX	16.64	-0.41	-2.40%

US Treasuries

Maturity	Yield	Change
6M	4.028%	+1.5bp
1Y	4.116%	+0.8bp
2Y	4.306%	+0.4bp
3Y	4.347%	+0.6bp
5Y	4.414%	+0.7bp
7Y	4.533%	+0.7bp
10Y	4.663%	+0.6bp
20Y	5.175%	+0.5bp
30Y	5.151%	+0.4bp

FX

Pair	Rate	Move
USD/JPY	163.06	-0.07 (-0.0429%)
EUR/USD	1.1431	+0.0021 (+0.184%)
GBP/USD	1.3385	+0.0014 (+0.10%)
EUR/GBP	0.8538	+0.0008 (+0.09%)

Pair	Rate	Move
AUD/USD	0.7014	+0.0018 (+0.26%)
USD/KRW	1,467.20	-9.92 (-0.6716%)
USD/CNY	6.7679	-0.0046 (-0.0679%)
USD/CAD	1.4064	-0.0023 (-0.1633%)

Commodities

Commodity	Price	Net	%
WTI	$88.10	+$1.27	+1.46%
Brent	$95.90	+$1.83	+1.95%
Natural Gas	$2.959	+$0.034	+1.16%
RBOB Gasoline	$3.4623	+$0.0476	+1.39%
Heating Oil	$4.2277	+$0.0789	+1.90%

Economic Calendar — GMT

Time	Event	Forecast	Previous
07:20	German Buba Mauderer speaks	—	—
12:15	ECB Deposit Facility Rate	2.25%	2.25%
12:15	ECB Main Refinancing Rate	2.40%	2.40%
12:15	ECB Marginal Lending Facility	—	2.65%
12:15	ECB Monetary Policy Statement	—	—
12:30	US Continuing Claims	—	1,805K
12:30	US Initial Claims	211K	208K
12:45	ECB Press Conference	—	—
17:00	US 10-Year TIPS Auction	—	2.169%
20:30	Fed Balance Sheet	—	$6,743bn

Commentary

Asia is broadly firmer, led by South Korea, Japan and Hong Kong, while mainland Chinese shares lag. Australian employment and South Korean GDP both exceeded expectations, adding to the positive regional tone. US futures are slightly lower, however, as investors digest Alphabet’s sharply higher AI capital-spending plan and weaker Tesla profitability. Oil is again the key macro risk: Brent is close to $96 as tanker incidents and the widening Middle East conflict lift the supply-risk premium. Treasury yields are modestly higher across the curve. The ECB is today’s centrepiece; with unchanged rates largely priced in, the reaction should turn on guidance about whether higher energy costs may require further tightening later this year.