Multi-Asset Morning Pack – Tuesday 12 May 2026
06:00 UK | Asia mixed, oil bid, US futures softer, CPI ahead
Overnight tone
Risk tone turns more fragile as Korea tech-tax headlines hit Asia and Iran keeps oil bid.
US cash closed firmer Monday, but pre-market futures are modestly lower. Brent is holding above $104, Treasury yields are edging higher, and the dollar is stronger against JPY and KRW while sterling and euro soften.
US cash close
| Index | Close | Change |
|---|---|---|
| Dow Jones | 49,704.47 | +95.31 / +0.19% |
| Nasdaq Composite | 26,274.125 | +27.049 / +0.10% |
| S&P 500 | 7,412.84 | +13.91 / +0.19% |
| Russell 2000 | 2,870.64 | +9.431 / +0.33% |
| VIX | 18.38 | +1.19 / +6.92% |
Asia handover
Asia is mixed rather than outright risk-on. Japan is firmer, with the Nikkei up around 0.65%, but Korea is the clear drag after AI-tax and “citizen dividend” headlines hit the chip complex. China is also softer, while Hong Kong is modestly higher. Australia and New Zealand are weaker.
| Market | Level | Move |
|---|---|---|
| Nikkei 225 | 62,821.19 | +0.65% |
| Shanghai | 4,208.005 | -0.40% |
| Shenzhen Comp. | 15,757.357 | -0.89% |
| Hang Seng | 26,486.63 | +0.30% |
| ASX 200 | 8,680.50 | -0.24% |
| KOSPI | 7,641.21 | -2.31% |
| Straits Times | 4,943.68 | +0.02% |
| NZX 50 | 13,054.83 | -1.18% |
Overnight headlines
- Trump says Iran ceasefire is on “life support” after rejecting Tehran response — Reuters
- Korea roils markets by floating “citizen dividend” from AI-tax proceeds — Bloomberg
- Oil gains on Iran deadlock; stocks swing on Korea headlines — Bloomberg/Swissinfo
- US-Iran peace hopes fade as Hormuz risks remain centre stage — Guardian
- US CPI and oil inventories headline Tuesday’s calendar — Investing.com
- Hedge funds bet on biofuels to profit from Iran oil shock — FT
- Germany’s AfD sees support surge after criticising Trump’s Iran war — FT
- France presses EU to crack down on platforms including Shein and Temu — FT
- US communications regulator targets Chinese tech over security risks — FT
- Peltz in talks to raise funds for Wendy’s go-private bid — FT
US futures
| Future | Last | Move | Implied open |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dow Fut | 49,787.0 | -5.00 / -0.01% | -0.47 / 0.00% |
| S&P Fut | 7,426.5 | -10.25 / -0.14% | -9.34 / -0.13% |
| Nasdaq Fut | 29,324.75 | -99.25 / -0.34% | -104.91 / -0.36% |
| Russell 2k Fut | 2,873.9 | -5.00 / -0.17% | -13.74 / -0.48% |
Commodities
Energy remains the macro pressure point. WTI is near $99 and Brent is above $104 as the market prices continued Iran/Hormuz risk.
| Commodity | Price | Move |
|---|---|---|
| WTI Jun ’26 | 98.81 | +0.75% |
| Brent Jul ’26 | 104.80 | +0.57% |
| Natural Gas Jun ’26 | 2.922 | +0.41% |
| RBOB Gas Jun ’26 | 3.6154 | +0.43% |
| ULSD Heating Oil Jun ’26 | 4.0048 | +0.91% |
| Uranium May ’26 | 86.15 | UNCH |
FX
| Pair | Price | Move |
|---|---|---|
| USD/JPY | 157.55 | +0.25% |
| EUR/USD | 1.1757 | -0.21% |
| GBP/USD | 1.3584 | -0.17% |
| EUR/GBP | 0.8652 | -0.03% |
| AUD/USD | 0.7231 | -0.22% |
| NZD/USD | 0.5956 | -0.12% |
| USD/KRW | 1,483.00 | +0.61% |
| USD/CNY | 6.7932 | -0.02% |
Rates
Treasury yields are a touch higher across the curve ahead of CPI, with the 10-year at 4.421% and the long bond just under 5%.
| Treasury | Yield | Change |
|---|---|---|
| US 2Y | 3.962% | +1.5bp |
| US 5Y | 4.082% | +1.3bp |
| US 7Y | 4.249% | +1.1bp |
| US 10Y | 4.421% | +0.9bp |
| US 20Y | 4.984% | +0.7bp |
| US 30Y | 4.992% | +0.5bp |
Calendar – Tuesday 12 May
| UK time | Event | Market focus |
|---|---|---|
| 09:00 | Eurozone Industrial Production | EUR / Bunds |
| 10:00 | Germany / Eurozone ZEW surveys | EUR / European equities |
| 13:30 | US CPI / Core CPI | Rates, USD, equities |
| 19:00 | US Treasury Statement | Treasury supply / fiscal read-through |
| 23:30 | Australia Wage Price Index | AUD / RBA expectations |
| 00:50 Wed | Japan Current Account / Trade Balance | JPY / Japan rates |
Desk take: Monday’s US close was constructive, but the overnight handover is less clean. Korea is the equity pressure point, oil is the macro pressure point, and CPI is the day’s main risk event. A hot print would test the recent equity resilience given yields are already nudging higher and Brent is back above $104.
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