Overnight Headlines 31st March 2026

Multi-Asset Morning Pack – 31 March 2026 (06:00 UK)

Macro / Overnight Narrative

Markets are stabilising after Monday’s risk-off tone, with oil the key driver again.

• Early Asia saw oil dip on signs of potential US–Iran de-escalation
• But crude reversed higher into Europe, keeping energy risk firmly in play
• Equities are mixed/fragile, while US futures point to a rebound attempt

Geopolitics still dominates, but positioning is less one-way than yesterday

Top Overnight Headlines

1. Oil reverses lower as Trump signals possible de-escalation with Iran

→ Suggests reduced probability of forced Strait of Hormuz reopening

→ Market reads as lower immediate escalation risk

Oil drops as Trump signals Iran de-escalation

2. Crude pares losses into Europe

→ WTI ~$102.7, Brent ~$112.9

→ Confirms bid still underneath energy complex

Oil prices rebound as traders reassess supply risks

3. Micron plunges ~10%, extending post-earnings rout (~30% total)

→ AI demand narrative questioned

→ Semiconductor weakness weighs on Nasdaq tone

Micron shares tumble after earnings disappoint

4. US equities mixed into the close

→ Rotation out of growth continues

→ Small caps underperform sharply

Stock market today: S&P 500 falls as oil rises

5. Volatility elevated but off highs

→ VIX ~30 still signalling fragile risk environment

VIX remains elevated as markets digest oil shock

Equities

US Cash Close

• S&P 500: 6,343 (-0.39%)
• Nasdaq: -0.73%
• Dow: +0.11%
• Russell 2000: -1.46%
• VIX: 30.6 (-1.4%)

👉 Theme: Growth weak, defensives/energy holding in

Asia (latest)

• Nikkei: -1.2%
• Hang Seng: -0.5%
• Shanghai: -0.4%
• Shenzhen: -1.45%
• KOSPI: -3.4% (notable underperformer)
• ASX 200: +0.6% (energy support)

👉 Theme: Broad risk-off, Korea standout downside

US Futures (06:00 UK)

• S&P Fut: +0.75% (~6436)
• Nasdaq Fut: +0.64%
• Dow Fut: +0.83%
• Russell Fut: +1.26%

👉 Rebound attempt, led by cyclicals/small caps

Commodities

• WTI (May): $102.7 (-0.1%)
• Brent (May): $112.9 (+0.1%)
• Nat Gas: -1.6%
• RBOB Gasoline: +1.4%

👉 Key takeaway:

Oil no longer one-directional, but still structurally bid

FX

• USD: Stable to slightly softer on easing geopolitical premium
• JPY: One to watch — should strengthen if risk deteriorates again
• EUR/USD: Range-bound, driven by USD leg

Rates (contextual read)

• Expect UST yields slightly lower on:
  
• Softer geopolitical tone
• Growth concerns (tech/semis weakness)

👉 Watch 10Y UST reaction if oil pushes higher again

What Matters Today

1. Oil direction (still THE market driver)
2. US equity open — does futures strength hold?
3. Semiconductor follow-through (Micron read-across)
4. Any further US–Iran headlines

Quick Trader Take

• Positioning less stretched vs yesterday
• Energy bid intact → inflation risk not gone
• Equities trying to stabilise but fragile
• Vol still elevated → don’t chase it