Multi-Asset Morning Pack – 2 April 2026
Top Overnight Headlines
1. Oil jumps as Trump signals continued strikes on Iran
→ No clear de-escalation path; supply fears back in focus
2. Asian markets fall as Trump warns Iran war will continue
→ Risk sentiment deteriorates across Asia and US futures
3. Markets reverse as hopes for diplomatic off-ramp fade
→ Investors reposition back to defensive stance
4. US readies new pharmaceutical tariffs
→ Potential escalation in trade tensions
5. US Treasury to meet regulators on private credit risks
→ Focus on leverage, liquidity, and systemic exposure
6. Amazon in talks to buy Globalstar in ~$9bn deal
→ Strategic push vs Starlink in satellite space
Macro / Overnight Narrative
Trump’s Iran address has reset the tone back to risk-off.
Markets had leaned toward a possible off-ramp — instead, the message was:
- campaign continues
- escalation remains on the table
That has triggered a classic energy-driven risk shock:
- Oil sharply higher
- Equities reversing lower
- Yields rising (not falling) → inflation risk dominant
- USD firmer
Price Action Snapshot
US Close (1 April)
- S&P 500: 6,575 (+0.72%)
- Nasdaq: +1.16%
- Dow: +0.48%
- VIX: 24.5 (-2.8%)
US Futures (Now)
- S&P fut: -1.22%
- Nasdaq fut: -1.55%
- Dow fut: -1.04%
Asia
- Nikkei: -2.32%
- ASX: -1.04%
- Nifty: -2.11%
- Kospi: **~ -4%**
Rates (USTs)
- 2Y: 3.86% (+5bp)
- 5Y: 4.01% (+6bp)
- 10Y: 4.38% (+6bp)
- 30Y: 4.95% (+5bp)
→ Key signal: bonds selling off despite equities down
FX
- EUR/USD: 1.153 (-0.5%)
- GBP/USD: 1.323 (-0.6%)
- USD/JPY: 159.4 (+0.4%)
- AUD/USD: -0.7%
- NZD/USD: -0.8%
- USD/KRW: +0.6%
→ USD stronger vs risk FX
Commodities (Key Driver)
- WTI: $105.40 (+5.3%)
- Brent: $107.77 (+6.5%)
- RBOB: +5.4%
- Heating Oil: +8.5%
→ Energy complex leading everything
Trader’s Take
This is not a clean risk-off — it’s stagflationary:
- Oil ↑
- Yields ↑
- Equities ↓
That combination matters.
The key shift overnight:escalation narrative
Everything now hinges on:
- duration of conflict
- risk to supply (Hormuz implicitly in play)
What Matters Next
- Can Brent hold > $107–108
- Do yields continue higher despite equities falling
- Europe cash open reaction
- Any shift in tone from US / Iran (headline-driven tape)
- Details on drug tariffs
