Thursday, 5 July 2018

Things To Look Out For Today - Events & Data (Ldn Times)...

Things To Look Out For Today - Events & Data (Ldn Times)...

Asia:
00:00am  - SK  BoP Current Account Balance (May) $8680.6m vs Prior $1768.2m
02:30am  - BOJ Masai speaks in Matsumoro
04:05am  - RBA's Heath Speech in Wollongong


Europe:
05:30am  - NE  CPI
07:00am  - GER Factory Orders
08:00am  - SPA Industrial Orders
08:15am  - SWI CPI
08:30am  - GER Markit Germany Construction PMI
09:10am  - ITL Markit Retail PMI
09:10am  - FRA Markit Retail PMI
09:10am  - GER Markit Retail PMI
09:10am  - EUR Markit Retail PMI
11:00am  - BOE Governor Carney Speaks in Newcastle
12:15pm  - ECB's Mersch Speaks in Linz, Austria


US:
13:15pm  - US ADP Employment Change
13:30pm  - US Initial Jobless Claims
13:30pm  - US Continuing Claims
14:45pm  - Markit US Services/Composite PMI's
15:00pm  - US ISM Non-Manuf. Composite
19:00pm  - FOMC Minutes from 13th June 2018



Market Focus this Morning...
- EUR/USD has erased declines after a report showed some ECB policy makers are uneasy that investors aren't betting on a rate hike until December 2019. The state of market expectations isn't necessarily surprising, given odds the central bank's pre-commitment to holding rates through the summer of 2019.
- Cash USTs to reopen after holiday, futures implied yields ~1bp higher across 2-10y vs early NY cash close on Tuesday. FOMC minutes tonight/NFP tomorrow may dull activity. Aussie bonds open steady, curve modestly steeper. Watching spread vs UST which remains near all time tights. Long-end JGB have been well supported recently on suspected lifer flow which bodes well for today's 30y sale. BPCE may price 5y/10y Samurai issue as early as today, may pressure basis wider

These are key events coming up this week:

- Federal Reserve releases minutes of its June 12-13 meeting, when FOMC policy
makers raised the benchmark rate a quarter point for the second time this year
and lifted the median forecast to four total increases in 2018.
- U.S. payrolls are due Friday.
- Also on Friday, the U.S. is scheduled to impose tariffs on $34 billion of
Chinese goods. Beijing has said it will slap tariffs on an equal value on U.S.
exports including agricultural and auto exports.

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